永安期货有色早报-20260324

Group 1: Copper - The weekly copper price fluctuated and declined, mainly due to significant macro - geopolitical disturbances. The market has high doubts about the US inventory siphoning ability, and there are concerns about China's consumption capacity. In the domestic scrap copper market, the resumption of production of recycled copper processing enterprises is slower than previous years, and the supply of tax - included scrap copper is tight. The narrowing of the refined - scrap spread may drive further depletion of refined copper inventory. Maintain a bullish view on copper in the medium term, and pay attention to the support around 93,000 - 96,000 RMB next week [1] - From March 17th to 23rd, the spot premium of Shanghai copper changed from - 215 to - 140, the refined - scrap copper spread increased from 3394 to 3616, the SHFE inventory remained at 411,121, the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 13,737 to 274,115, the spot import profit increased from - 125.38 to 759.87, the three - month import profit increased from 323.64 to 1020.54, the bonded warehouse premium increased from 47.0 to 52.0, the bill of lading premium increased from 46.0 to 53.0, the LME C - 3M increased from - 113.47 to - 85.26, the LME inventory increased by 5125 to 347,475, and the LME cancelled warehouse receipts decreased by 200 to 45,475 [1] Group 2: Aluminum - Due to the Iran crisis, a 600,000 - ton aluminum plant in Qatar is operating at 60% (380,000 tons), and Bahrain Aluminum has cut production by 300,000 tons. The external market spot is tight, stronger than the domestic market. The Fed's shift from a rate - cut to a rate - hike expectation has put pressure on non - ferrous metals. However, due to supply damage and high energy dependence, aluminum is expected to perform strongly in the metal sector [1] - From March 17th to 23rd, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased from 24,900 to 23,440, the Yangtze River aluminum ingot price decreased from 24,895 to 23,435, the Guangdong aluminum ingot price decreased from 24,910 to 23,410, the domestic alumina price increased from 2704 to 2756, the imported alumina price increased from 2670 to 2725, the SHFE social inventory remained unchanged, the SHFE exchange inventory remained at 452,044, the aluminum bonded premium increased from 203 to 220, the spread between the SHFE aluminum spot and the main contract increased from - 215 to - 220, the spot import profit increased from - 3302.13 to - 3333.71, the three - month import profit increased from - 2986.69 to - 2809.14, the aluminum C - 3M decreased from 5.38 to 30.63, the LME inventory decreased by 2000 to 427,675, and the LME cancelled warehouse receipts decreased by 2000 to 154,625 [1] Group 3: Zinc - In the supply side, the benchmark price for the long - term contract negotiation is 85 US dollars, and the medium - term zinc ore supply is expected to be tight. The domestic and imported TC are at a low level, and the resumption of production of northern mines in spring is expected to drive a rebound. The smelting industry is still profitable under the support of high sulfuric acid and precious metal prices. In the demand side, downstream enterprises are resuming production, but orders are weak, and the overall inventory has accumulated to over 250,000 tons. The domestic fundamentals of zinc are average, and short - term support is weak under the background of recession expectations [4] - From March 17th to 23rd, the spot premium changed from - 110 to - 80, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased from 23,870 to 22,670, the Tianjin zinc ingot price decreased from 23,920 to 22,730, the Guangdong zinc ingot price decreased from 23,910 to 22,740, the zinc social inventory remained at 14.61, the SHFE exchange inventory remained at 152,266, the SHFE zinc spot import profit increased from - 2496.76 to - 2308.83, the SHFE zinc futures import profit increased from - 2847.88 to - 2182.75, the zinc bonded warehouse premium remained at 130, the LME C - 3M increased from - 48 to - 21, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 500 to 117,175, and the LME zinc cancelled warehouse receipts decreased by 450 to 5625 [4] Group 4: Nickel - In the supply side, the pure nickel production in February was 32,600 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 2600 tons). In the demand side, it is mainly for rigid demand, and the premium of Jinchuan nickel is weakening at a high level, while the premium of Russian nickel is weak. In the inventory side, domestic inventory is continuously accumulating, and LME inventory is slightly decreasing. The short - term fundamentals are weak. Due to policy intervention on the supply side, the nickel price is expected to fluctuate within a range [6] - From March 17th to 23rd, the price of 1.5 - grade Philippine nickel ore remained at 80.0, the Jinchuan spot price decreased by 50.0 to 141,150.0, the Russian nickel spot price decreased by 50 to 134,450, the Jinchuan premium remained at 6550, the Russian nickel premium remained at 150, the spot import gain increased from 513.33 to 2068.89, the futures import gain increased from - 1338.79 to - 240.46, the bonded warehouse premium remained at 210, the LME C - 3M increased from - 207 to - 188, the LME inventory decreased by 720 to 282,792, and the LME cancelled warehouse receipts decreased by 720 to 17,640 [5] Group 5: Stainless Steel - In the supply side, the steel mill production schedule has a slight month - on - month decline. In the demand side, downstream enterprises are gradually recovering. In the cost side, the ore price has pushed up the nickel - iron price, and the chrome - iron price has slightly increased. In the inventory side, the inventory has slightly decreased this week, and the warehouse receipts have slightly decreased. The overall fundamentals are weak. Affected by supply - side policies, the price is expected to fluctuate within a range following the nickel price [8] - From March 17th to 23rd, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil remained at 14,950, the price of 304 hot - rolled coil increased by 50 to 13,800, the price of 201 cold - rolled coil increased by 50 to 8600, the price of 430 cold - rolled coil remained at 7800, and the price of scrap stainless steel increased by 50 to 9750 [7] Group 6: Lead - In the supply side, the profit of primary lead is sufficient, and production is resuming. The TC is expected to rebound in spring. The resumption of production of recycled lead is expected to be delayed due to losses. In the demand side, the battery operating rate has recovered this week, and the dealers' battery inventory has decreased. The production schedule in March is expected to pick up. Currently, the primary lead has high profit and high operating rate, while the terminal demand is weak. The social inventory of spot lead has decreased by nearly 10,000 tons this week, continuously squeezing the supply space of recycled lead. The lead price is expected to fluctuate weakly [10] - From March 17th to 23rd, the spot premium increased from - 200 to - 90, the price difference between Shanghai and Henan remained at 0, the price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong remained at - 75, the price difference of 1 recycled lead increased by 25 to 0, the social inventory decreased by 10,000 tons, the SHFE inventory remained at 66,110, the spot import gain increased from 488.67 to 593.34, the futures import gain increased from 389.04 to 506.99, the bonded warehouse premium remained at 100, the LME C - 3M remained at - 40, the LME inventory decreased by 25 to 284,075, and the LME cancelled warehouse receipts increased by 1325 to 9200 [9] Group 7: Tin - This week, the tin price fluctuated and declined, facing great pressure due to liquidity risks. In the supply side, Wa State is carrying out water - pumping work, and the export volume in February has recovered rapidly, with an expected acceleration in the second quarter. The domestic processing fee has a slight upward trend. Indonesia has determined the quota for 2026 to be over 60,000 tons, with a slightly neutral inventory accumulation in 2026. However, supply - side risks such as Indonesia's ban on tin ingot exports and the impact of the US on the mineral policy of the Democratic Republic of the Congo are difficult to disprove in the short term. In the demand side, the rigid demand is strong, but the contribution of new consumption needs to be continuously verified. The social inventory is mainly reflected in the exchange inventory, and the willingness to replenish inventory in each link is strong after the price decline. The overseas consumption is generally flat, and the inventory fluctuates. The tin price is greatly affected by global macro - liquidity. If the liquidity is loose, the upward elasticity of tin is strong; if the liquidity tightens due to the impact of the US - Iran conflict, the downward adjustment space of the tin price is also large [14] - From March 17th to 23rd, the spot import gain decreased from 5036.01 to - 12,085.99, the spot export gain increased from - 51,699.78 to - 32,417.21, the tin position decreased by 2303 to 75,944, the LME C - 3M decreased from - 203 to - 266, the LME inventory decreased by 115 to 8805, and the LME cancelled warehouse receipts decreased by 75 to 635 [14] Group 8: Industrial Silicon - An individual large - scale factory in Inner Mongolia has increased production, and an individual factory in Gansu has carried out maintenance with reduced production. The operation in other regions remains at a low level. A large - scale factory in Xinjiang maintains 75 furnaces in operation, the same as last week. The supply and demand are close to a balanced state, and the price is expected to fluctuate with the cost. In the long - term, the over - capacity of industrial silicon is still high, and the operating rate is low. The price is expected to fluctuate at the cycle bottom with the seasonal marginal cost as the anchor [18] - From March 17th to 23rd, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased from - 110 to - 125, the 421 Sichuan basis decreased from - 460 to - 475, the 553 East China basis decreased from 640 to 625, the 553 Tianjin basis decreased from 690 to 625, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 20 to 21,648 [18] Group 9: Lithium Carbonate - In the short - term, the inventory reduction in March has slowed down marginally. The mismatch degree is greatly affected by the import rhythm. The contradiction in the spot fundamentals has weakened, and the futures market is mainly driven by the macro - factors. Affected by the expected storage revenue and regulatory expectations, the upward space in the future needs the resonance of the spot and futures markets or unexpected supply disturbances. It is recommended to pay attention to the current speed of warehouse receipt reduction and the export policy changes in Zimbabwe. A downward breakthrough requires a collapse in demand or an unexpected resumption of production by CATL [21] - From March 17th to 23rd, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price decreased from 158,000 to 146,500, the SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate price decreased from 154,500 to 143,500, the basis of the main contract decreased from 2680 to - 2540, the basis of the near - month contract decreased from 2560 to 1500, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 781 to 33,537 [21]