集运早报-20260324

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The EC2604 contract is gradually entering the delivery logic, with a neutral current valuation. The future mainly lies in the contradiction between the cargo - collection and price - adjustment situation of the European line itself and the change in fuel costs. The EC2610 contract follows the cost - support logic, and fuel costs continuously affect its valuation. Geopolitical risks are significant, and TACO news may make it difficult for the short - term market to continue rising. A significant decline requires a clearer signal of geopolitical relaxation. Attention should be paid to the opportunity to repair the basis for the EC2604 contract [3] Summary by Relevant Categories Futures Contract Information - Contract Price and Fluctuation: The closing prices of EC2604, EC2605, EC2606, etc. are 1957.4, 2378.8, 2692.9 respectively, with increases of 0.69%, 8.57%, 11.17% respectively. The trading volume and open interest of each contract also vary, such as the trading volume of EC2604 being 36453 and the open interest being 17696 with a change of - 74 [2] - Month - to - Month Spread: The spreads of EC2604 - 2606, EC2604 - 2605, EC2606 - 2610 are - 735.5, - 421.4, 1044.9 respectively, with day - on - day changes of - 257.2, - 174.3, 192.4 respectively and week - on - week changes of - 287.0, - 236.4, 171.9 respectively [2] Spot Situation - Week 13: MSK's price is flat at $2250, PA quotes range from $2400 - 2500, and some voyages are at $2200 (large - volume orders at $2000). The average spot price converted to the futures contract is about 1700 - 1800 points. COSCO announces a price increase for the European line in April to $5100, and CMA issues a price - increase letter for April with a target of $3500 [4] - Week 14: MSK quotes at $2650 (a $400 increase from the previous week). YML releases the freight rate for the first half of April at $2750. The PA Alliance's FE4 maiden voyage (April 11) quotes at $2200 [4] Spot Index - SCFI (European Line): Updated on March 20, 2026, the price is $1636 per TEU, with a 1.11% increase from the previous period and an 11.43% increase in the previous period [2] News - On March 24, Iranian media reported that the US and Israel attacked two Iranian energy infrastructure facilities. The Trump administration is secretly evaluating the possibility of taking Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf as a potential partner and even a future Iranian leader. Iranian - US relations are complex, with information being transmitted through Egypt and Turkey to ease tensions, but the US has not accepted Iran's two core conditions. The issue of closing the Strait of Hormuz and laying mines is still in Iran's potential action options [5]