大越期货玻璃早报-20260324

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The glass production profit has been slightly repaired, cold repair is less than expected, and supply is at a low level. However, the downstream deep - processing orders are weak due to the real estate drag, and the inventory is at a historical high for the same period. The overall situation is bearish. The cost increase is expected to lead to a short - term glass price that will mainly fluctuate in a wide range [2]. - The main logic is that although the glass supply is low due to the boost of macro - sentiment, the orders of downstream deep - processing factories are weak and the glass factory inventory is high, so it is expected that the glass will mainly operate in a wide - range shock [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract increased from 1054 yuan/ton to 1082 yuan/ton, a rise of 2.66%. The spot price of Shahe Safety large boards decreased from 968 yuan/ton to 964 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.41%. The main basis increased from - 86 yuan/ton to - 118 yuan/ton, a rise of 37.21% [5]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large boards in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe is 964 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [10]. Fundamental - Cost Side - The production profit of glass is at a low level, which leads to a decline in production [3]. Fundamental - Supply - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 207, with an operating rate of 70.41%, and the number of operating production lines is at a historical low for the same period. The daily melting volume of national float glass is 145,800 tons, with production capacity at a historical low for the same period [16][18]. Fundamental - Demand - In November 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.6944 million tons [22]. Fundamental - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 74.436 million weight boxes, a decrease of 1.86% compared with the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [2][37]. Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including data such as production, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio [38].