建信期货豆粕日报-20260324

Report Information - Report date: March 24, 2026 [2] - Report industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Research team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] Core Viewpoints - The external market of US soybean futures contracts is relatively strong, with the main contract approaching 1170 cents. The news of Trump's postponement of his visit to China has a significant impact on the market, but the trade negotiations between China and the US are relatively stable, and it is estimated that China will continue to purchase US soybeans at a normal level. The Middle East situation has escalated, and the logic of rising agricultural product planting costs driven by energy prices still holds, providing a basis for the CBOT to remain at a relatively high level. However, it is necessary to pay attention to the survey data from a third - party institution indicating a potential increase in the planting area of new - season US soybeans. Before the USDA's March - end area report and a turning point in the war, the external market may remain strong [6]. - In the domestic market, the change in the soybean export quarantine process in Brazil has slowed down the shipping progress in mid - March. Based on the shipping time window, the supply - demand situation will be relatively tight before the end of April, so the 05 contract theoretically has some support. However, considering that a large amount of Brazilian soybeans will flow into the market in May, it is expected that the basis will likely increase in the future [6]. Market Review Contract Quotes | Contract | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | High Price | Low Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 2605 | 3030 | 3020 | 3035 | 2972 | 3007 | - 23 | - 0.76% | 1259866 | 1783092 | - 66806 | | Soybean Meal 2607 | 2888 | 2899 | 2927 | 2880 | 2914 | 26 | 0.90% | 76591 | 531699 | 1684 | | Soybean Meal 2509 | 3031 | 3046 | 3070 | 3021 | 3050 | 19 | 0.63% | 482552 | 1074476 | 45750 | [6] Market Influencing Factors - External market: The news of Trump's postponement of his visit to China has cast a shadow on the previously optimistic expectations of US soybean export demand. However, the trade negotiations between China and the US at the Paris meeting are relatively stable, and it is estimated that China will continue to purchase US soybeans at a normal level. The Middle East situation has escalated, and the logic of rising agricultural product planting costs driven by energy prices still holds, providing a basis for the CBOT to remain at a relatively high level. A third - party institution's survey data shows a potential increase in the planting area of new - season US soybeans, mainly due to corn - to - soybean conversion [6]. - Domestic market: The change in the soybean export quarantine process in Brazil has slowed down the shipping progress in mid - March. The supply - demand situation will be relatively tight before the end of April, providing support for the 05 contract. However, a large amount of Brazilian soybeans will flow into the market in May, and it is expected that the basis will likely increase [6]. Industry News USDA March Supply - Demand Report - Argentina: The 2025/2026 soybean production forecast is lowered from 48.5 million tons last month to 48 million tons, and the export volume of 8.25 million tons remains unchanged [9]. - Brazil: The soybean production is 180 million tons, and the export volume is 114 million tons, both remaining unchanged from last month [9]. - China: The import volume of 112 million tons remains unchanged from last month [9]. - Global: The global production is slightly lowered to 427.18 million tons (from 428.18 million tons in February), and the global inventory is slightly lowered to 125.31 million tons (from 125.51 million tons in February) [9]. - US: The sown area of soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 81.2 million acres, the harvested area is 80.4 million acres, the yield per unit is 53 bushels, the production is 4.262 billion bushels, the export volume is 1.575 billion bushels, and the ending inventory is 350 million bushels, all remaining unchanged from February. The import volume and crushing volume are both increased by 50 million bushels [9][10]. China's Soybean Import Data In February 2026, the total import volume of soybeans was 5.976 million tons, the lowest this year. It increased by 146,000 tons (2.50%) compared with 5.83 million tons in the same period last year and decreased by 595,000 tons compared with 6.571 million tons in the previous month [10]. Data Overview - The report includes figures such as the spread between Soybean Meal 1 - 5 contracts, the spread between Soybean Meal 5 - 9 contracts, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, the ex - factory price of soybean meal, and the basis of the Soybean Meal 05 contract, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [14][16][17]