大越期货沪镍、不锈钢早报-20260324

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The Shanghai nickel 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly [2] - The stainless steel 2605 contract is expected to have a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average [4] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs 1. Shanghai Nickel - Fundamentals: External markets rebounded, and the international situation remains the main influencing factor. In March, production scheduling increased, domestic inventories continued to accumulate, and market supply was sufficient. Nickel ore prices continued to rise, and the RKAB policy in Indonesia continued to have an impact. The strong demand in Indonesia was in sharp contrast to the cold trading due to cost inversion in China. Nickel - iron prices were weakly stable, and the cost line was firm. Stainless steel inventories continued to decline slightly, and demand was weak. New energy vehicle production and sales data met expectations, with a large month - on - month decline in the off - season [2] - Basis: The spot price of Shanghai nickel was 137,850, and the basis was 4,870, indicating a bullish signal [2] - Inventory: LME inventory was 282,792, a decrease of 720, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange's warehouse receipts were 57,632, an increase of 942, indicating a bearish signal [2] - Market trend: The closing price was below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was downward, indicating a bearish signal [2] - Main positions: The main positions were net long, and the long positions increased, indicating a bullish signal [2] 2. Stainless Steel - Fundamentals: The spot price of stainless steel remained unchanged. In the short term, nickel ore prices were firm, demand in Indonesia was strong, nickel - iron prices were weakly stable, and the cost line had strong support. Stainless steel inventories decreased slightly, and demand was weak [4] - Basis: The average price of stainless steel was 15,062.5, and the basis was 1,027.5, indicating a bullish signal [4] - Inventory: The futures warehouse receipts were 41,665, an increase of 827, showing a neutral signal [4] - Market trend: The closing price was below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was upward, showing a neutral signal [4] 3. Price Overview - Nickel: The Shanghai nickel main contract price on March 23 was 132,980, a decrease of 180 compared to March 20. The London nickel price was 17,200, an increase of 315 compared to March 20. The SMM1 electrolytic nickel spot price was 137,850, a decrease of 50 compared to March 20 [10] - Stainless Steel: The stainless steel main contract price on March 23 was 14,035, a decrease of 30 compared to March 20. The cold - rolled coil prices in Wuxi, Foshan, Hangzhou, and Shanghai remained unchanged from March 20 [10] 4. Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventories - As of March 20, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's nickel inventory was 63,661 tons, with the futures inventory at 56,690 tons, a decrease of 20 tons and an increase of 228 tons respectively [12] - On March 23, LME nickel inventory was 282,792, a decrease of 720 compared to March 20. The nickel warehouse receipts were 57,632, an increase of 942 compared to March 20. The total inventory was 340,424, an increase of 222 compared to March 20 [13] 5. Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventories - On March 20, the inventory in Wuxi was 598,700 tons, in Foshan was 380,600 tons, and the national inventory was 1,127,400 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons compared to the previous period. The inventory of the 300 - series was 693,700 tons, a decrease of 13,400 tons compared to the previous period [17] - On March 23, the stainless steel warehouse receipts were 41,665, an increase of 827 compared to March 20 [18] 6. Nickel Ore and Nickel - Iron Prices - The price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 80 US dollars per wet ton on March 23, unchanged from March 20. The price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni0.9%) was 34.5 US dollars per wet ton, unchanged from March 20 [21] - The high - nickel (8 - 12) price per nickel point was 1,086.49 yuan on March 23, a decrease of 0.59 compared to March 20. The low - nickel (below 2) price per ton was 3,675 yuan, unchanged from March 20 [21] 7. Stainless Steel Production Costs - The traditional production cost was 14,156, the scrap - steel production cost was 13,971, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost was 17,850 [23] 8. Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The converted import price was 134,395 yuan per ton [26]