大越期货聚烯烃早报-20260324

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. The LLDPE and PP主力 contracts have strong disk performance, the Iranian situation affects oil prices, the external crude oil is strong, the inventory is neutral, and the downstream demand is recovering [4][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In February, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. Trump postponed the ultimatum to attack Iranian power plants, causing a sharp decline in external crude oil prices at night. In terms of supply and demand, the spring plowing has started, and the demand for mulch film is good, but high - priced raw materials have led to a wait - and - see attitude among enterprises for inventory replenishment. The packaging film is mainly based on rigid demand due to price increases, and the start - up rate and orders of the pipe industry are both low. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 8850 (+550), and the fundamentals are overall bullish [4] - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is - 673, and the premium/discount ratio is - 7.1%, which is bearish [4] - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 62.3 million tons (- 0.2), which is bearish [4] - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4] - Main Position: The net short position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, which is bearish [4] - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract has a strong disk performance. The Iranian situation affects oil prices, the external crude oil is strong, the inventory is neutral, and the downstream demand is recovering. It is expected that LLDPE will show a volatile trend today [4] - Likely Factors: Cost support and significant fluctuations in crude oil [6] - Negative Factors: Geopolitical factors [6] PP Overview - Fundamentals: In February, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. Trump postponed the ultimatum to attack Iranian power plants, causing a sharp decline in external crude oil prices at night. In terms of supply and demand, multiple PDH units were shut down for maintenance due to raw material issues. The downstream demand for plastic weaving has increased, but enterprises have low production profit and low willingness to start production. The start - up rate of BOPP has decreased abnormally, and downstream customers are resistant to high - priced raw materials. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 9350 (+600), and the fundamentals are overall bullish [7] - Basis: The basis of the PP 2605 contract is - 443, and the premium/discount ratio is - 4.5%, which is bearish [7] - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 59.6 million tons (- 6.1), which is neutral [7] - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [7] - Main Position: The net short position of the PP main contract is increasing, which is bearish [7] - Expectation: The PP main contract has a strong disk performance. The Iranian situation affects oil prices, the external crude oil is strong, the inventory is neutral, and the downstream demand is recovering. It is expected that PP will show a volatile trend today [7] - Likely Factors: Cost support and significant fluctuations in crude oil [8] - Negative Factors: Geopolitical factors and international policy games [8] Spot and Futures Market and Inventory Data | Product | Spot Delivery Price (Change) | Main Contract Price (Change) | Basis (Change) | Warehouse Receipt (Change) | Comprehensive Factory Inventory (Change) | Social Inventory (Change) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | LLDPE | 8850 (+550) | 05 contract: 9523 (+705) | - 673 (- 155) | 6371 (- 30) | 62.3 (0.0) | 61.9 (0.0) | | PP | 9350 (+600) | 05 contract: 9793 (+774) | - 443 (- 174) | 15927 (- 124) | 59.6 (0.0) | 30.7 (0.0) | [9] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Polyethylene: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, production, net import volume, and apparent consumption have generally shown an increasing trend. The import dependence has gradually decreased. The expected production capacity in 2025E will increase by 20.5% compared with 2024 [13] - Polypropylene: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, production, net import volume, and apparent consumption have generally increased. The import dependence has gradually decreased. The expected production capacity in 2025E will increase by 11.0% compared with 2024 [15]