菜粕早报-20260324

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2605 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2360 - 2420. The market is influenced by factors such as the soybean meal trend, technical consolidation, the lifting of China's restrictions on Canadian agricultural product exports, and the escalation of the Middle - East conflict. Although the current demand for rapeseed meal is in the off - season, low inventory supports the market, and the post - Spring Festival demand outlook is positive. After the digestion of overall negative factors, the market will maintain an oscillating pattern [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal RM2605 is expected to oscillate between 2360 and 2420. The market is affected by multiple factors including soybean meal trends, short - term negative news about the lifting of Canadian export restrictions, and short - term positive news from the Middle - East conflict. The current demand is in the off - season, but low inventory provides support, and post - Spring Festival demand is expected to be good. The market will return to an oscillating pattern in the short term, influenced by soybean meal [9]. 3.2 Recent News - The domestic aquaculture industry has entered the seasonal off - season. The short - term supply in the spot market is expected to remain tight, while the short - term demand is low, suppressing the market outlook. Canadian rapeseed exports to China have returned to normal, and the import volume is gradually increasing. The visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China has improved Sino - Canadian trade relations in the short term, with the phased cancellation of reciprocal tariffs. Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production offset by the increase in Russian production. The Middle - East situation has further escalated, and global geopolitical conflicts may rise, providing support for commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: The demand for rapeseed meal in China is expected to be good after the Spring Festival, and oil mills have no pressure on rapeseed meal inventory [12]. - Bearish factors: The domestic demand for rapeseed meal has entered the off - season in the short term, and Sino - Canadian trade relations have improved, leading to the resumption of rapeseed imports from Canada [12]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected arrival of Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Price and Basis: The spot price of rapeseed meal is 2420, with a basis of 21, indicating a premium over the futures price, which is neutral [9]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory of rapeseed meal is 39.84 tons, down 4.55% week - on - week from 41.74 tons last week and 18.02% lower than 48.6 tons in the same period last year, which is bullish [9]. - Market trend: The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upwards, which is bullish [9]. - Trading data: The average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has shown small fluctuations, and the spread of the 2605 contract is at a relatively high level. Rapeseed meal futures have oscillated downward, and the spot price is relatively weak, with the spot premium remaining at a low level. Imported rapeseed has increased since March, with small fluctuations in import costs. The rapeseed inventory of oil mills has slightly decreased, while the rapeseed meal inventory has increased from a low level. The rapeseed processing volume and operating rate of oil mills have remained low [13][22][27]. 3.5 Position Data - The main short positions have decreased, and funds have flowed out, which is bearish [9].