甲醇早报-20260324

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Under the superposition of multiple positive factors, the methanol market is expected to maintain a strong short - term operation. Inland methanol is expected to remain firm, and the port market is expected to continue to be strong this week. The current methanol has shown a leading trend in the chemical market. Future attention should be paid to whether the US withdraws troops from the Middle East and the sustainability of MTO profits. Once there are signs of the end of the war, the driving logic will change rapidly. It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate strongly this week, with MA2605 operating in the range of 3085 - 3400 [5] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Methanol 2605: In terms of fundamentals, with multiple positive factors, the short - term methanol market is expected to be strong. Inland, high profits keep domestic methanol production at a high level, but recent olefin demand has increased significantly, and with the sharp rise of futures, buying sentiment has increased, accelerating the inventory removal of upstream methanol. The expected reduction in imports and the rapid decline of port inventory further support the spot. Traders are generally optimistic about the future, and downstream users are willing to follow high - priced goods. In ports, imports continue to shrink, but the inflow of inland goods to ports slows down the decline of port inventory. If the Jiangsu MTO device restarts and the Middle East geopolitical conflict continues, the port market is expected to remain strong this week. The current methanol has led the chemical market. Future attention should be paid to whether the US withdraws troops from the Middle East and the sustainability of MTO profits. The base difference shows that the spot price in Jiangsu is 3110 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract base difference is - 241, with the spot at a discount to the futures. As of March 19, 2026, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports decreased by 5.39 tons to 82.67 tons, and the overall available circulating goods in coastal areas decreased by 5.43 tons to 44.15 tons. The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the average line. The main positions are net long, changing from short to long. It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate strongly this week, with MA2605 operating in the range of 3085 - 3400 [5] 3.2 Long and Short Concerns - Likely Positive Factors: Some devices have stopped or reduced their loads, such as Inner Mongolia Heima and Shanxi Zhongxin; the methanol production in Iran is at a low level, and methanol imports in February are expected to continue to shrink; methanol factories in production areas have actively cleared inventory, and the current inventory is low, with some enterprises even limiting sales; some downstream users continue to stock up before the Spring Festival [6] - Likely Negative Factors: Domestic methanol production is at a high level, and there is no shortage of supply; as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream formaldehyde and other industries gradually stop for holidays, weakening the demand for raw materials; the main olefin devices in ports have stopped, significantly weakening local demand; most downstream users have completed pre - holiday stocking, resulting in a phased weakening of demand [7] 3.3 Fundamental Data - Price Data: In the spot market, the price of steam - coal in the Bohai Rim is 687 yuan/ton, CFR China Main Port is 397 US dollars/ton, the import cost is 3348 yuan/ton, CFR Southeast Asia is 557 US dollars/ton, and prices in Shandong, Hebei, Inner Mongolia, and Fujian have also changed. In the futures market, the futures closing price is 3351 yuan/ton, with 7641 registered warrants and 147 valid forecasts. In terms of the spread structure, the base difference between Jiangsu and Shandong is - 56 yuan/ton, the import spread is - 3 yuan/ton, and there are also changes in other spreads [8] - Price Changes: From March 17 to March 23, the spot price of methanol in Jiangsu increased by 15.82% to 3295 yuan/ton, the futures price increased by 17.70% to 3351 yuan/ton, and the base difference changed from - 2 to - 56 [9][11] - Profit Data: The profit of coal - based methanol production increased from 385 to 543 yuan/ton, the profit of natural - gas - based methanol remained at - 40 yuan/ton, and the profit of coke - oven - gas - based methanol increased from 643 to 661 yuan/ton [19] - Load Data: The national weighted average methanol load decreased from 78.71% to 74.90%, and the load in the northwest decreased from 85.09% to 81.54% [21] - External Price and Spread: The CFR China price increased by 2.85% to 397 US dollars/ton, the CFR Southeast Asia price increased by 8.80% to 556.5 US dollars/ton, and the spread between them changed from - 125.5 to - 159.5 US dollars/ton [24] - Import Spread and Profit: The spot price increased by 12.65% to 3295 yuan/ton, the import cost increased by 2.88% to 3348 yuan/ton, and the import spread changed from - 409 to - 53 yuan/ton [28] - Traditional Downstream Product Price: The price of acetic acid increased by 12.50% to 3600 yuan/ton, while the prices of formaldehyde and dimethyl ether remained unchanged [31] - Downstream Production Profit and Load: The profit of formaldehyde production decreased from - 280 to - 303 yuan/ton, and the load increased slightly; the profit of dimethyl ether production decreased from 71 to 0 yuan/ton, and the load increased from 8.34% to 9.79%; the profit of acetic acid production increased from 435 to 588 yuan/ton, and the load decreased from 73.61% to 72.32%; the profit of MTO production decreased from - 3104 to - 4544 yuan/ton, and the load decreased from 86.45% to 84.18% [35][38][43][48] - Port Inventory: The inventory in East China ports decreased from 54.8 to 51.07 tons, and the inventory in South China ports decreased from 33.26 to 31.6 tons [50] - Warrants and Forecasts: The number of methanol warrants decreased by 31.88% to 7641, and the number of valid forecasts remained at 147 [54] - Balance Sheet: The report provides the methanol balance sheet from November 2022 to October 2024, including production, demand, import, inventory, and supply - demand differences [56] 3.4 Maintenance Status - Domestic Device Maintenance: Multiple domestic methanol production enterprises are in the process of maintenance, including Shaanxi Heima, Qinghai Zhonghao, etc., with different maintenance times and losses [57] - Overseas Device Operation: Some overseas methanol production devices are in different operation states, such as some in Iran are in the process of restarting, and some in other countries are operating normally or with low starts [58] - Olefin Device Operation: Some domestic olefin production devices are in different operation states, such as Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy is in maintenance, and some are operating stably [59]