工业硅期货早报-20260324

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 78,000 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous week. The production schedule is expected to increase but remain at a low level [6]. - Demand: Last week, the demand was 69,000 tons, a 1.47% increase from the previous week. The demand is showing an upward trend. The polysilicon inventory is at a high level of 344,000 tons, silicon wafers are in a loss - making state, while battery cells and components are profitable. The silicone inventory is at a low level of 58,500 tons, with a production profit of 2503 yuan/ton and a comprehensive operating rate of 68.6%, remaining unchanged from the previous week and lower than the historical average. The aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level of 53,800 tons. The import is in a loss - making state of 2400 yuan/ton, and the freight and profit of A356 aluminum delivered to Wuxi is 633.46 yuan/ton. The recycled aluminum operating rate is 59.5%, a 1.19% increase from the previous week and at a high level [7]. - Cost: The production cost of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang is 9769.7 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous week. The cost support has increased during the dry season [7]. - Expectation: The supply production schedule is expected to increase and remain at a low level, the demand recovery is at a low level, and the cost support has increased. The industrial silicon 2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8485 - 8665 [8]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the polysilicon production was 19,000 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous week. The production schedule in March is predicted to be 84,900 tons, a 10.25% increase from the previous month [12]. - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 11.78GW, a 1.66% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory was 276,500 tons, a 2.46% decrease from the previous week. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss - making state. The production schedule in March is 49.01GW, a 10.70% increase from the previous month. In February, the battery cell production was 37.09GW, a 10.49% decrease from the previous month. Last week, the inventory of battery cell external sales factories was 5.82GW, a 16.61% decrease from the previous week. Currently, battery cell production is profitable. The production schedule in March is 46.36GW, a 24.99% increase from the previous month. In February, the component production was 29.3GW, a 16.76% decrease from the previous month. The expected component production in March is 41.39GW, a 41.26% increase from the previous month. The domestic monthly inventory is 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease from the previous month, and the European monthly inventory is 38.41GW, a 12.30% increase from the previous month. Currently, component production is profitable [12]. - Cost: The average cost of the polysilicon N - type material industry is 40,670 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 830 yuan/ton [12]. - Expectation: The supply production schedule continues to increase. In the demand side, the silicon wafer production will increase in the short - term and is expected to decline in the medium - term. The battery cell production will increase in the short - term and is expected to decline in the medium - term. The component production will increase in the short - term and is expected to decline in the medium - term. The overall demand shows a continuous decline. The cost support has weakened. The polysilicon 2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 34,420 - 36,450 [12]. Overall Logic - Positive factors: Cost increase support and manufacturers' plans to stop or reduce production [14]. - Negative factors: Slow recovery of post - holiday demand and strong supply but weak demand in downstream polysilicon [15]. - Main logic: Capacity clearance, cost support, and demand increment [15]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 1. Daily Views - Industrial silicon has a positive fundamental situation, positive basis, negative inventory, positive disk, and negative main position. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8485 - 8665 [7][8][10]. - Polysilicon has a negative fundamental situation, positive basis, negative inventory, negative disk, and positive main position. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 34,420 - 36,450 [12]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data - Industrial silicon: The supply last week was 78,000 tons, the demand was 69,000 tons, and the social inventory was 553,000 tons, a 0.18% increase from the previous week. The sample enterprise inventory was 197,800 tons, a 0.36% increase from the previous week, and the main port inventory was 136,000 tons, a 1.49% increase from the previous week [6][7][10]. - Polysilicon: The production last week was 19,000 tons, the silicon wafer production was 11.78GW, and the weekly inventory was 344,000 tons, a 3.64% decrease from the previous week [12].