碳酸锂期货早报-20260324

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of lithium carbonate is increasing, with last week's production at 24,186 tons, a 3.24% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. The production in February 2026 was 83,090 tons, and the predicted production for the next month is 106,390 tons, a 28.04% month - on - month increase. The import volume in February 2026 was 21,800 tons, and the predicted import volume for the next month is 26,000 tons, a 19.27% month - on - month increase [8][9]. - The demand for lithium carbonate is expected to strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced. The inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials has increased. The inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 106,718 tons last week, a 0.89% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 18,425 tons, a 2.25% week - on - week increase [8]. - The cost of imported lithium spodumene concentrate is 147,976 yuan/ton, with no daily change, resulting in a loss of 1,854 yuan/ton. The cost of imported lithium mica is 137,582 yuan/ton, with no daily change, resulting in a profit of 5,025 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 32,231 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that of the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9]. - The lithium carbonate 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 144,000 - 154,840 [9]. - The main logic is the emotional shock caused by news under the tight supply - demand balance. The main risk points are the impact of production suspension, reduction, and maintenance plans, and the start time of industry clearance [12][13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Supply - side: Last week's lithium carbonate production was 24,186 tons, a 3.24% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In February 2026, the production was 83,090 tons, and the predicted production for the next month is 106,390 tons, a 28.04% month - on - month increase. The import volume in February 2026 was 21,800 tons, and the predicted import volume for the next month is 26,000 tons, a 19.27% month - on - month increase [8][9]. - Demand - side: The inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 106,718 tons last week, a 0.89% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 18,425 tons, a 2.25% week - on - week increase. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced [8][9]. - Cost - side: The cost of imported lithium spodumene concentrate is 147,976 yuan/ton, with no daily change, resulting in a loss of 1,854 yuan/ton. The cost of imported lithium mica is 137,582 yuan/ton, with no daily change, resulting in a profit of 5,025 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 32,231 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that of the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9]. - Market judgment: The lithium carbonate 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 144,000 - 154,840. The fundamentals are bullish, the basis is bearish, the inventory situation is mixed, the disk is bearish, and the main position is net short with a decrease in short positions [9]. - Likely factors: The production suspension and reduction plans of lithium mica manufacturers and the month - on - month decline in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile are positive factors. The continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline is a negative factor [10][11]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - Market price data: The price of 6% lithium spodumene decreased by 1.41% to 2,028 US dollars/ton; the price of lithium mica concentrate decreased by 1.12% to 4,400 yuan/ton; the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1.68% to 146,500 yuan/ton; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1.71% to 143,500 yuan/ton; the price of micro - powder lithium hydroxide decreased by 2.36% to 145,000 yuan/ton; the price of coarse - particle lithium hydroxide decreased by 3.43% to 140,800 yuan/ton [15]. - Supply - side data: The weekly operating rate was 73.46% with no change; the daily production cost of lithium spodumene was 147,976 yuan/ton with no change; the monthly processing cost of lithium spodumene decreased by 0.72% to 20,800 yuan/ton; the daily production profit of lithium spodumene decreased by 103.51% to - 1,854 yuan/ton; the daily production cost of lithium mica was 137,582 yuan/ton with no change; the monthly processing cost of lithium mica decreased by 0.51% to 34,890 yuan/ton; the daily production profit of lithium mica decreased by 20.50% to 5,025 yuan/ton; the total weekly inventory decreased by 0.09% to 98,873 tons; the smelter inventory increased by 1.94% to 16,608 tons; the downstream inventory increased by 1.00% to 46,105 tons; the other inventory decreased by 2.32% to 36,160 tons; the monthly total production decreased by 15.13% to 83,090 tons; the monthly import volume of lithium concentrate decreased by 31.07% to 438,336 tons; the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate decreased by 1.61% to 26,426.79 tons; the monthly net import volume decreased by 2.11% to 25,830.71 tons; the supply - demand balance was - 6,821 tons [18]. - Demand - side data: The monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 7.67% to 65%; the monthly production decreased by 7.67% to 300,250 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 11.76% to 60%; the monthly production decreased by 12.20% to 348,200 tons; the monthly export increased by 14.83% to 6,529,967 kg; the weekly inventory increased by 0.89% to 106,718 tons; the monthly operating rate of ternary precursor decreased by 8.16% to 45%; the monthly production decreased by 8.98% to 78,650 tons; the monthly operating rate of ternary material decreased by 15.77% to 63.23%; the monthly production decreased by 12.77% to 70,720 tons; the monthly total battery loading volume decreased by 37.38% to 26,300 GWh; the loading volume of lithium iron phosphate battery decreased by 39.36% to 5,700 GWh; the loading volume of ternary battery decreased by 37.00% to 20,600 GWh; the production of new energy vehicles decreased by 39.41% to 1,041,000 vehicles; the sales decreased by 19.05% to 765,000 vehicles; the export decreased by 6.62% to 282,000 vehicles; the penetration rate increased by 5.21% to 42.38%; the retail - to - wholesale ratio of hybrid vehicles decreased by 11.96% to 0.54; the retail - to - wholesale ratio of pure - electric vehicles decreased by 3.80% to 0.66; the dealer inventory warning index decreased by 5.39% to 56.2; the dealer inventory index increased by 12.98% to 1.48 [18].