大越期货沥青期货早报-20260324

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt remains high, and the demand recovery is weak. The cost support is expected to strengthen in the short - term, and the futures price is predicted to fluctuate within a narrow range. The asphalt 2606 contract is expected to oscillate between 4559 - 4763 [7]. - The bullish factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support. The bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods, the overall downward demand, and the increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [9][10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Fundamentals: In March 2026, the total domestic asphalt production plan was 2.187 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 251,000 tons (13.0%) and a year - on - year decrease of 43,000 tons (1.9%). The capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples this week was 22.7709%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.80 percentage points. The shipment volume of national sample enterprises was 109,890 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 37.59%. The output of sample enterprises was 380,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.31%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 1.163 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.96%. The refineries reduced production this week to ease supply pressure, and supply pressure may further decrease next week. The current demand is lower than the historical average. The daily asphalt processing profit was - 686.52 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 769.12 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 48.92%. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. Crude oil strengthened, and it is expected to support the price in the short - term [7]. - Basis: On March 23, the spot price in Shandong was 4,300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 06 contract was - 361 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [7]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 1.195 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.36%. The in - factory inventory was 788,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.25%. The port diluted asphalt inventory was 600,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25.00%. The social and in - factory inventories continued to accumulate, while the port inventory continued to decline [7]. - Disk: MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 06 contract closed above MA20 [7]. - Main Position: The net long position of the main contract decreased [7]. - Expectation: Considering the refineries' production cuts, the weak demand affected by the off - season, the continuous inventory reduction, and the strengthening of crude oil, the cost support is expected to strengthen in the short - term. The disk is expected to oscillate within a narrow range, and the asphalt 2606 contract is expected to fluctuate between 4559 - 4763 [7]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - Futures Closing Price: The prices of most contracts increased, with the 06 contract rising from 4,457 to 4,661, an increase of 4.58% [13]. - Basis: The basis of most contracts changed, with the 06 contract's basis changing from - 247 to - 361, a change of 46.15% [13]. - Registered Warehouse Receipts: The number of registered warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased from 93,980 to 88,120, a decrease of 6.24% [13]. - Some Inter - month Spreads: The spreads of some contracts changed, such as the 3 - 6 spread changing from - 863 to - 920, a change of 6.60% [13]. - Weekly Inventory: The social inventory was 1.195 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.36%. The in - factory inventory was 788,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.25%. The port diluted asphalt inventory was 600,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25.00% [15]. - Weekly Production and Loss: The sample enterprise output was 380,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.32%. The weekly maintenance volume was 1.163 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.96% [15]. - Weekly Shipment: The national shipment volume was 109,890 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 37.60% [15]. - Downstream Demand Start - up Rate: The start - up rates of different types of asphalt and related products showed different trends, such as the start - up rate of heavy - traffic asphalt being 21.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.05 percentage points; the start - up rate of building asphalt being 4.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.32 percentage points; the start - up rate of modified asphalt being 1.128%, a month - on - month increase of 0.40 percentage points; the start - up rate of road - modified asphalt being 10%, a month - on - month increase of 1.00 percentage point; and the start - up rate of waterproofing membranes being 36%, a month - on - month increase of 3.00 percentage points [7][15]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt from 2020 to 2026, showing the price differences between the spot and futures [18][20]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread: The report shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2023 [23]. - Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend: The report shows the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 to 2026 [26]. - Crude Oil Crack Spread: The report shows the historical trends of the crack spreads of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) from 2020 to 2026 [29][30]. - Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend: The report shows the historical trends of the price ratios of asphalt to SC crude oil and fuel oil from 2020 to 2026 [33]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report shows the historical price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China and Shandong from 2020 to 2026 [36]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis - Asphalt Profit: The report shows the historical profit trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2026 [38]. - Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend: The report shows the historical trends of the profit spreads between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2026 [42]. - Supply - Side Analysis - Shipment Volume: The report shows the historical weekly shipment volumes of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2026 [44]. - Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory: The report shows the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventories from 2021 to 2026 [47]. - Production: The report shows the historical weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 to 2026 [50]. - Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend: The report shows the historical trends of Marey crude oil prices and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2026 [55]. - Local Refinery Asphalt Production: The report shows the historical production volumes of local refinery asphalt from 2019 to 2026 [57]. - Start - up Rate: The report shows the historical weekly start - up rates of asphalt from 2023 to 2026 [60]. - Maintenance Loss Estimation: The report shows the historical trends of maintenance loss estimations from 2018 to 2026 [63]. - Inventory Analysis - Exchange Warehouse Receipts: The report shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2026 [66]. - Social Inventory and In - Factory Inventory: The report shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and in - factory inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2026 [70]. - In - Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio: The report shows the historical trends of the in - factory inventory inventory ratio from 2018 to 2026 [73]. - Import and Export Situation - Export and Import Trends: The report shows the historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2026 [76]. - Korean Asphalt Import Price Difference Trend: The report shows the historical trends of the import price differences of Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2026 [79]. - Demand - Side Analysis - Petroleum Coke Production: The report shows the historical production volumes of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2026 [82]. - Apparent Consumption: The report shows the historical apparent consumption volumes of asphalt from 2019 to 2026 [85]. - Downstream Demand - Highway Construction and Transportation Fixed - Asset Investment: The report shows the historical trends of highway construction and transportation fixed - asset investment from 2020 to 2025 [88]. - New Local Special - Purpose Bonds: The report shows the historical trends of new local special - purpose bonds from 2019 to 2026 [89]. - Infrastructure Investment Completion Year - on - Year: The report shows the historical year - on - year trends of infrastructure investment completion from 2020 to 2024 [89]. - Downstream Machinery Demand: The report shows the historical sales trends of asphalt concrete pavers, domestic excavators, and road rollers from 2019 to 2026, as well as the historical trends of excavator monthly working hours from 2020 to 2026 [93][95]. - Asphalt Start - up Rate: The report shows the historical start - up rates of heavy - traffic asphalt from 2019 to 2026, the historical start - up rates of asphalt by use from 2019 to 2026, and the historical start - up rates of downstream industries such as shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membranes from 2021 to 2026 [97][100][102]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: The report presents the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from 2024 to 2026, including production, import, export, downstream demand, and inventory [107].