大越期货燃料油早报-20260324

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In the context of low terminal marine fuel demand, the spot price spread of Singapore's 0.5% sulfur marine fuel oil has dropped nearly 25% weekly, and the Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure is showing weakness. Although the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has blocked Middle - East oil transportation and high freight rates have curbed European arbitrage cargoes, Singapore's downstream market supply is still relatively sufficient. Shipowners are reducing purchases due to high fuel prices. The market expects the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils to narrow to some extent, and the overall price will fluctuate with crude oil. FU2605 is expected to operate in the 4550 - 4750 range, and LU2605 in the 5200 - 5400 range [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - The report provides the latest information on fuel oil, including fundamental analysis, price data, and market expectations. The overnight Trump's remarks led to a significant adjustment in oil prices, and fuel oil followed suit. High - sulfur fuel oil performed slightly better than low - sulfur. The market is worried about supply issues, and the Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market structure is firm. Some Asian refineries have cut production due to crude oil supply shortages, and the ship - refueling market is taking a cautious approach [3] 3.2 Multi - and Short - Side Concerns - Likely Positive Factors: Middle - East situation turmoil and poor strait passage [4] - Likely Negative Factors: The Trump administration's new policies and upstream crude oil being under pressure [4] - Market Driver: The supply side is affected by geopolitical risks, and demand is neutral [4] 3.3 Fundamental Data - Fundamentals: Weak Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure due to low terminal demand; Singapore's downstream supply is relatively sufficient despite transportation disruptions [3] - Basis: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 775.09 dollars/ton with a basis of 360 yuan/ton; low - sulfur is 950.21 dollars/ton with a basis of 646 yuan/ton, and the spot price is higher than the futures price [3] - Inventory: Singapore fuel oil inventory on March 18 was 2486.9 barrels, an increase of 37 barrels [3] - Market Chart: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward [3] - Main Position: High - sulfur main positions are short, with short positions decreasing; low - sulfur main positions are long, with long positions decreasing [3] 3.4 Spread Data - Futures Spread: The price of the FU main contract futures increased by 166 to 4940, a 3.48% increase; the LU main contract futures price increased by 44 to 5821, a 0.76% increase. The FU basis decreased by 54.26 to 360, a 13.10% decrease; the LU basis decreased by 409 to 646, a 39% decrease [5] - Spot Spread: The prices of Zhoushan high - sulfur, Zhoushan low - sulfur, Singapore high - sulfur, and Middle - East high - sulfur fuel oils increased, while Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil decreased slightly, and Singapore diesel decreased. The increases were 2.25%, 2.02%, 5.22%, 5.92% respectively, and the decreases were - 0.03% and - 0.66% respectively [6] 3.5 Inventory Data - The inventory data of Singapore fuel oil from January 7, 2026, to March 18, 2026, shows fluctuations. The inventory on March 18 was 2486.9 barrels, an increase of 37 barrels compared to the previous period [7]