瑞达期货塑料产业日报-20260324

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - L2605 rose and then fell, closing at 8,918 yuan/ton with a 3.57% decline. Recent international oil prices rebounded after a sharp drop. In terms of plastic supply and demand, some plants were under maintenance, PE production decreased by 2.81% to 664,000 tons, and capacity utilization decreased by 2.32 percentage points to 80.07%. Downstream operating rates increased by 3.8% week-on-week. Production enterprise inventory decreased by 1.23% to 568,300 tons, and social inventory decreased by 1.98% to 607,100 tons. PE maintenance plans increased, and supply pressure is expected to ease. The downstream is in the traditional peak season, and demand is recovering. Asian ethylene prices are strong, providing support for LLDPE. L2605 is expected to fluctuate with oil prices, and attention should be paid to geopolitical news from the Middle East [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for polyethylene was 8,918 yuan/ton, down 605 yuan; the 1 - month contract was 8,443 yuan/ton, down 275 yuan; the 5 - month contract was 8,918 yuan/ton, down 605 yuan; the 9 - month contract was 8,736 yuan/ton, down 576 yuan [2] - The trading volume was 1,133,666 lots, up 265,827 lots; the open interest was 314,927 lots, down 58,310 lots [2] - The 1 - 5 spread was - 475, up 330; the 5 - 9 spread was 182, down 29; the 9 - 1 spread was 293, down 301 [2] - The long positions of the top 20 futures holders were 455,054 lots, down 50,372 lots; the short positions were 467,027 lots, down 36,997 lots; the net long positions were - 11,973 lots, down 13,375 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 8,890.43 yuan/ton, up 2.17 yuan; in East China, it was 9,137.21 yuan/ton, up 1.16 yuan [2] - The basis was - 27.57, up 607.17 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The FOB middle price of naphtha in Singapore was 138.75 US dollars per barrel, up 4.77 US dollars; the CFR middle price of naphtha in Japan was 1,189.5 US dollars per ton, up 49 US dollars [2] - The CFR middle price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 1,426 US dollars per ton, up 75 US dollars; in Northeast Asia, it was 1,451 US dollars per ton, up 25 US dollars [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The national PE petrochemical operating rate was 80.07%, down 2.32 percentage points [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of PE packaging film was 45.56%, up 2.19 percentage points; the operating rate of PE pipes was 23.33%, up 5.33 percentage points; the operating rate of PE agricultural film was 35.44%, up 8.63 percentage points [2] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 41.68%, up 0.24 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 33.5%, up 0.17 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and call options for polyethylene was 52.15%, down 6.51 percentage points [2] 3.7 Industry News - From March 13th to 19th, China's polyethylene production was 664,000 tons, a 2.81% decrease from the previous week; the capacity utilization rate was 80.07%, a 2.32 - percentage - point decrease [2] - From March 13th to 19th, the average operating rate of China's polyethylene downstream products increased by 3.8% from the previous period. The overall operating rate of agricultural film increased by 8.6%, and the operating rate of PE packaging film increased by 2.2% [2] - As of March 18th, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 568,300 tons, a 1.23% decrease from the previous week; as of March 20th, the social inventory of polyethylene was 607,100 tons, a 1.98% decrease from the previous week [2] - From March 13th to 19th, the cost of oil - based LLDPE increased by 9.35% to 10,177 yuan/ton, and the oil - based profit decreased by 519 yuan/ton to - 1,848 yuan/ton; the cost of coal - based LLDPE decreased by 0.72% to 6,542 yuan/ton, and the coal - based profit increased by 383 yuan/ton to 1,829 yuan/ton [2]