瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20260324

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic Yunnan rubber - producing area is steadily advancing the tapping process, and new domestic rubber is gradually entering the market. Overseas natural rubber - producing areas are in the low - production season. Recently, the total inventory at Qingdao Port has increased, with both bonded and general trade warehouses seeing an increase. The total inbound volume at the port has increased significantly month - on - month. Although downstream tire factories replenish stocks moderately at low prices, the increase in inbound volume exceeds the outbound volume, and the port's total inventory has returned to the accumulation rhythm. It is expected that the general trade warehouse in Qingdao may continue to accumulate inventory slightly in the short term [2]. - Last week, the operating rate of domestic tire enterprises increased slightly month - on - month. Semi - steel tire enterprises are mainly focused on fulfilling foreign trade orders. Coupled with the tight supply of domestic sales, the capacity utilization rate of enterprises remains at a high level. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire enterprises has increased slightly. Driven by price increase news, enterprises' shipments are concentrated, and the shortage phenomenon is obvious, which supports the overall capacity utilization rate. As the end of the quarter approaches, some enterprises are expected to maintain a high operating rate to complete quarterly tasks, but there may be flexible production scheduling adjustments by individual enterprises. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,000 - 16,500 in the short term, and the nr2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,900 - 13,600 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 16,225 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 80 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 13,310 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 255 yuan/ton [2]. - The spread between the Shanghai rubber 5 - 9 contracts is - 10 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 40 yuan/ton; the spread between the 20 - number rubber 5 - 6 contracts is - 55 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 45 yuan/ton [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 2,915 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 175 yuan/ton [2]. - The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 111,774 hands, with a month - on - month decrease of 5,117 hands; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 57,562 hands, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,141 hands [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 34,195, with a month - on - month increase of 3,937; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 9,794, with a month - on - month decrease of 253 [2]. - The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 125,410 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 30 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber are 45,159 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 604 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 16,000 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 16,500 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 150 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,955 US dollars/ton, with no month - on - month change; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,950 US dollars/ton, with no month - on - month change [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15,230 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 150 yuan/ton; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 15,180 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 150 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 18,200 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 2,200 yuan/ton; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 18,500 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 2,200 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 145 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 145 yuan/ton; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 915 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,366 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 311 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 240 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheets) is 73.9 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 0.01 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) is 70 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 0.45 Thai baht/kg [2]. - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 75.5 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 1 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup glue) is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 0.85 Thai baht/kg [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 13.6 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is - 32 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 19 US dollars/ton [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 199,300 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 30,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 396,300 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 94,100 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires is 70.72%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.5 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires is 78.25%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.54 percentage points [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 41.09 days, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.82 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 44.59 days, with a month - on - month increase of 0.75 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.71 million pieces, with a month - on - month decrease of 150,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 59.68 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 1.29 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 19.37%, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.74 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 23.06%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 32.17%, with a month - on - month increase of 3.8 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 32.18%, with a month - on - month increase of 3.81 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - According to preliminary data from the First Commercial Vehicle Network, in February 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a nearly 30% month - on - month decrease from January 2025 and an about 8% year - on - year decrease from 81,400 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. The year - on - year and month - on - month decline in the heavy - truck industry in February 2026 is mainly due to the seasonal fluctuations of the Spring Festival month [2]. - According to statistics from Longzhong Information, as of March 22, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 685,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8,000 tons, an increase of 1.18%. The bonded area inventory was 122,100 tons, an increase of 0.66%; the general trade inventory was 563,500 tons, an increase of 1.29%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 1.41 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.50 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.62 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.41 percentage points [2]. - According to statistics from Longzhong Information, as of March 19, the capacity utilization rate of the sample enterprises of China's semi - steel tires was 79.32%, a month - on - month increase of 0.59 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.05 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of the sample enterprises of all - steel tires was 72.21%, a month - on - month increase of 0.41 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.31 percentage points [2].