瑞达期货PVC产业日报-20260324

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic supply - demand of PVC is in a tight balance. The high inventory in the early stage is expected to be digested. The V2605 is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term due to the influence of Middle - East geopolitical news. With the downstream entering the traditional peak season, the downstream start - up rate is expected to rise to a relatively high level throughout the year. In the context of the continuous Middle - East geopolitical conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the positive impact on exports in the future cannot be falsified [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 5853 yuan/ton, down 398 yuan; the trading volume is 1977737 lots, down 99122 lots; the open interest is 753229 lots, down 50885 lots. The long positions of the top 20 futures holders are 1037880 lots, down 16718 lots; the short positions are 1041333 lots, down 5499 lots; the net long positions are - 3453 lots, down 11219 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 7300 yuan/ton, up 650 yuan; the price of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 6021.48 yuan/ton, up 328.15 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 6725 yuan/ton, up 245 yuan; the price of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 6141.25 yuan/ton, up 335 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China and Southeast Asia is 1050 US dollars/ton, with no change. The FOB price of PVC in Northwest Europe is 1050 US dollars/ton, with no change. The basis of PVC is - 301 yuan/ton, down 96 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2900 yuan/ton, with no change; in North China, it is 2921.67 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; in Northwest China, it is 2733 yuan/ton, with no change. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 49.5 yuan/ton, up 100.5 yuan. The mid - price of VCM CFR Far East is 916 US dollars/ton, up 129 US dollars; the mid - price of VCM CFR Southeast Asia is 969 US dollars/ton, up 181 US dollars. The mid - price of EDC CFR Far East is 351 US dollars/ton, up 51 US dollars; the mid - price of EDC CFR Southeast Asia is 350 US dollars/ton, up 51 US dollars [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The operating rate of PVC is 80.12%, down 1.23 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 84.71%, up 1.78 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 69.24%, down 8.36 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC is 61.05 tons, down 2.13 tons; the total social inventory in East China is 56.73 tons, down 1.35 tons; the total social inventory in South China is 4.32 tons, down 0.78 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index is 91.45, down 0.45. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 58769.96 square meters, up 5313.26 square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate construction area is 659890.29 square meters, up 3824.09 square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate development investment is 44895.98 billion yuan, up 2871.41 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 39.74%, down 0.53 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 32.31%, down 0.04 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 50.78%, down 3.75 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 50.77%, down 3.69 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - From March 13th to 19th, China's capacity utilization rate was 80.12%, down 1.23% from the previous period. From March 14th to 20th, the downstream start - up rate of PVC increased by 2.33% to 41.66%, among which the start - up rate of pipes increased by 1.2% to 39.2%, and the start - up rate of profiles increased by 4.35% to 34.35%. As of March 19th, the social inventory of PVC was 137.13 tons, a 2.55% decrease from the previous period and a 64.47% increase year - on - year. From March 13th to 19th, the average cost of calcium - carbide - based PVC increased by 4.68% to 5391 yuan/ton, and the cost of ethylene - based PVC increased by 13.06% to 7294 yuan/ton; the profit of calcium - carbide - based PVC decreased by 73 yuan/ton to 193 yuan/ton, and the profit of ethylene - based PVC decreased by 198 yuan/ton to - 433 yuan/ton [3].