每日商品期市纵览-20260324

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is affected by geopolitical situations, Fed policies, and supply - demand fundamentals. Different sectors show various trends, with some in short - term adjustment, some in long - term upward potential, and others in high - level volatility or decline. [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Categories Financial Futures - Stock Index: There may be a technical rebound due to the easing signal of the Middle - East situation, but the sustainability is weak. In the medium - to - long - term, there is no trend turning point, and it is mainly in short - term adjustment. [2] - Treasury Bonds: The funds are stable, and purchases by banks and insurance institutions provide support. Yields rise, and after the rise, there is value for layout. It shows a short - term rebound following the fluctuation of risky assets. [2] Shipping (Container Shipping to Europe) - The SCFIS European line index continues to rise due to the game between geopolitical sentiment and off - season fundamentals. The market is in high - level wide - range oscillation, with near - month contracts affected by news and far - month contracts pricing long - term conflict expectations. [3] Non - ferrous Metals - Platinum and Palladium: The Fed's delayed rate - cut rhythm and Middle - East easing expectations put pressure on prices. Weak - dollar logic and South African supply disturbances support prices. It is in short - term weak - side oscillation and has medium - to - long - term upward potential. [4] - Gold and Silver: Trump's easing remarks cause a V - shaped reversal. Geopolitical conflicts and interest - rate hike expectations are the core trading logics. It lacks short - term upward drivers and maintains low - level oscillation. [5] - Copper: The expectation of US - Iran easing drives a rebound. Domestic social inventory decreases significantly, and downstream purchasing supports prices. The probability of a sharp rise is small, and attention should be paid to volume - price matching and upper pressure levels. [5] - Aluminum: The cooling of the Fed's rate - cut expectation and lack of new Middle - East production - cut news lead to weak - side oscillation. Supply shortages may cause price increases, and overseas fundamentals provide some resistance to decline. [6] - Alumina: Domestic production capacity decreases, and the oversupply situation narrows. Overseas, geopolitical impacts and rising shipping costs bring a balance between cost support and supply pressure, with prices in oscillation. [6] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: It follows the trend of Shanghai Aluminum, and has strong lower - side support due to raw material shortages and tax - refund policies. [7] - Zinc: Supply - side pressure is released, and demand is delayed with high inventory. Zinc prices face upward pressure and remain weak. [8] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: The Fed's hawkish stance and US - Iran conflicts suppress prices. Uncertainty in sulfur supply and slow quota approval in Indonesia affect the industry. Stainless - steel price decline is limited, and demand release rhythm needs attention. [8] - Tin: Supply has a buffer, and demand starts to resume. Inventory is high, but the spot market shows warming. It is in weak - side oscillation with no obvious bullish turning point. [9] - Lithium Carbonate: Supply is loose, and demand is mainly for rigid needs. The market is jointly led by supply - demand fundamentals and capital sentiment, with prices in oscillation. [9] - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: The industry is in a supply - demand double - weak situation. Global energy transformation is an irreversible trend, and it is at the bottom of the production - capacity cycle. [10][11] - Lead: Supply - side pressure is obvious, and demand recovers slowly. Lead prices are expected to oscillate and gradually stop falling. [11] Black Metals - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Rising oil prices drive up coking coal, and tight iron - ore inventory and rising freight provide cost support. High inventory and high warehouse receipts limit the upward space, and the short - term rebound height is limited. [12] - Iron Ore: The market is a mix of long and short factors. It shows a "near - strong, far - weak" feature, with prices supported by cost and tight spot supply but suppressed by medium - to - long - term demand and supply increase expectations. [13] - Coking Coal and Coke: The rise is driven by expectations, but the fundamentals are insufficient. Domestic production increases, and inventory is close to the same - period level. The price increase may trigger delivery risks. [14] - Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese: Manganese - ore prices are firm, and the lower - side cost support for ferroalloys is gradually strengthening. Attention should be paid to the impact of hurricanes on mining areas. [14] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Trump's easing signal causes a sharp drop in oil prices, but the conflict may still escalate. Geopolitical progress is the only core driver, and short - term volatility increases. [15] - Fuel Oil: Low - sulfur fuel oil is dragged by weak downstream demand, and high - sulfur fuel oil is slightly supported. The market's strength eases, and the price decline space is limited. [15] - Asphalt: Geopolitical disturbances lead to short - term price increases in crude oil, which is the core factor overriding asphalt's own fundamentals. [16][17] - Pure Benzene - Styrene: Fluctuations in crude oil due to US - Iran news cause large - scale adjustments in chemicals. Short - term oscillation is on the strong side, and attention should be paid to the duration of the Strait closure and supply reduction. [17] - LPG: Futures prices rise due to capital, showing an internal - strong, external - weak and futures - strong, spot - weak pattern. It is expected to return to fundamentals and oscillate at a high level, with a risk of回调. [18] - Methanol: Geopolitical games are the core logic. Supply - interruption concerns push up prices. The pricing logic changes, and port inventory decreases. The inter - month spread follows the US - Iran situation. [18] - PP and Propylene: Supply - side refinery maintenance and open export windows support the supply - demand situation. Geopolitical easing will reduce risk premiums, but supply reduction provides support. [19] - Plastic: Middle - East conflicts lead to supply reduction. Downstream resistance to high prices and demand feedback are obvious. The price has toughness, and short - term volatility increases. [20] - Rubber: Geopolitical news causes large fluctuations in synthetic rubber and small fluctuations in natural rubber. Cost support is strengthened, and inventory is reduced. Medium - to - long - term supply - demand supports valuation. [20] - Soda Ash: Supply pressure is high, and demand is stable but weak. Inventory is better than expected. The price increase space is limited, and the downward space depends on inventory accumulation. [21] - Glass: Cold - repair expectations continue, and medium - level inventory is a risk. Supply return expectations and high inventory limit the price increase, and demand needs verification. [22] - Caustic Soda: Supply pressure eases due to domestic and overseas device disturbances. Demand improves, but inventory is relatively high. Futures prices oscillate. [23][24] Agricultural Products - Hogs: The supply - demand situation is loose, with high supply and weak demand. Futures prices are under pressure and lack upward drivers. [25] - Oilseeds: The delay of Sino - US negotiations and short - term supply factors affect the market. The medium - term large - supply logic remains unchanged, and the price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal is being repaired. [25] - Oils: Crude - oil price changes are the main factor affecting the oil market. Attention should be paid to the progress of bio - fuel policies in Indonesia and the US. [26] - Cotton: Geopolitical conflicts and increased supply lead to a decline in Zhengzhou cotton, but low downstream inventory and good consumption provide support. Attention should be paid to US cotton exports. [26] - Sugar: The expected reduction in Brazilian sugar production and geopolitical tensions affect the market. The supply - demand situation is stable, and prices oscillate. [27] - Eggs: Supply shortages in some areas and cost support lead to a rebound in futures prices. The supply - demand situation remains unchanged, and the upward space is limited. [27] - Red Dates: The market focus is on demand, and downstream sales are weak. Prices are under pressure and may oscillate at a low level. [27]