瑞达期货焦煤焦炭产业日报-20260324

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The coking coal futures price is expected to fluctuate widely. High oil prices strengthen the substitution of coal chemical industry, and the expectation of downstream demand recovery supports the futures price. Recently, the market sentiment fluctuates [2]. - The coke futures price is also expected to fluctuate widely. The profitability of coke enterprises is weak, which restricts the enthusiasm for starting work. There is an expectation of downstream demand recovery, and the industry fundamentals are marginally improved. Recently, the market sentiment fluctuates more [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of JM main contract is 1,249.50 yuan/ton, down 40.00 yuan; the closing price of J main contract is 1,798.00 yuan/ton, down 49.00 yuan [2]. - The trading volume of JM futures contract is 647,897.00 lots, down 41,079.00 lots; the trading volume of J futures contract is 47,890.00 lots, down 1,411.00 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 contracts of coking coal is -63,166.00 lots, down 15,966.00 lots; the net position of the top 20 contracts of coke is -4,186.00 lots, up 1,179.00 lots [2]. - The price difference between JM9 - 5 contracts is 122.00 yuan/ton, up 33.00 yuan; the price difference between J9 - 5 contracts is 75.50 yuan/ton, up 7.50 yuan [2]. - The coking coal warehouse receipt is 0.00 pieces, unchanged; the coke warehouse receipt is 1,060.00 pieces, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The price of Ganqimao Du Meng 5 raw coal is 1,165.00 yuan/ton, up 51.00 yuan; the price of Tangshan Grade 1 metallurgical coke is 1,665.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The forward spot price of Russian main coking coal (CFR) is 170.00 US dollars/wet ton, up 2.50 US dollars; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke is 1,470.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of imported main coking coal from Australia at Jingtang Port is 1,630.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Grade 1 metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port is 1,570.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of main coking coal produced in Shanxi at Jingtang Port is 1,600.00 yuan/ton, up 10.00 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port is 1,470.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi is 1,406.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of J main contract is - 133.00 yuan/ton, up 49.00 yuan [2]. - The ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia is 1,280.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of JM main contract is 100.50 yuan/ton, up 40.00 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The daily output of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants is 24.31 million tons, up 1.21 million tons; the weekly inventory of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants is 332.51 million tons, up 18.91 million tons [2]. - The weekly capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants is 33.01%, up 2.01 percentage points; the monthly output of raw coal is 43,703.50 million tons, up 1,024.20 million tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of coal and lignite is 3,094.00 million tons, down 1,534.00 million tons; the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines is 196.90 million tons, up 3.30 million tons [2]. - The weekly inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports is 481.03 million tons, down 8.15 million tons; the weekly inventory of coking coal in all - sample independent coking enterprises is 1,005.03 million tons, up 35.60 million tons [2]. - The weekly inventory of coking coal in 247 steel mills across the country is 773.93 million tons, down 3.70 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke in 247 sample steel mills is 688.18 million tons, up 0.63 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The weekly available days of coking coal in all - sample independent coking enterprises is 12.30 days, down 0.14 days; the weekly available days of coke in 247 sample steel mills is 12.74 days, down 0.43 days [2]. - The monthly import volume of coking coal is 806.97 million tons, down 368.74 million tons; the monthly export volume of coke and semi - coke is 59.00 million tons, down 25.00 million tons [2]. - The monthly total supply of coking coal is 5,478.50 million tons, up 238.97 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises is 74.31%, up 0.40 percentage points [2]. - The weekly profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants is 38.00 yuan/ton, up 41.00 yuan/ton; the monthly output of coke is 0.00 million tons, unchanged [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace start - up rate of 247 steel mills across the country is 79.78%, up 1.44 percentage points; the weekly blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 85.53%, up 2.61 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of crude steel is 6,817.74 million tons, down 169.36 million tons [2]. Industry News - According to CCTV International News, Iran's new Supreme Leader's military advisor Muhsin Rezaei emphasized in an interview on March 23 that Iran will not stop the war until it gets all the compensation, all economic sanctions are lifted, and it gets international legal guarantees that the US will not interfere in Iran's affairs [2]. - Goldman Sachs said that due to the soaring oil and gas prices, the probability of the US economy falling into recession in the next 12 months has risen to 30%, 5 percentage points higher than the previous forecast [2]. Key Points of Attention - Pay attention to the implementation of the coke price increase [2]