广发早知道：汇总版-20260324

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is significantly affected by the geopolitical conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, with prices of various commodities fluctuating greatly. The market is constantly adjusting its expectations for the development of the war, and the uncertainty is high [2][3][4]. - Different industries have different supply - demand situations. Some industries are facing supply shortages due to the conflict, while others are affected by demand changes. For example, the energy and chemical industries are strongly affected by supply disruptions, while the agricultural and livestock industries are more affected by factors such as seasonal demand and production capacity [2][66][69]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Selections - Stainless Steel: The macro - pressure on stainless steel has improved, and supply - demand is gradually recovering. The raw material cost is strongly supported, and the short - term is expected to maintain a relatively strong shock, with the main contract referring to the 14000 - 14600 range [2][38][40]. - Methanol: Affected by the uncertainty of the Middle - East situation, the fluctuation of methanol is magnified. The import reduction dominates the current market, but attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand and policy risks [3][106]. - Rebar: The steel price center has risen, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high. The supply and demand of steel are both increasing, and the inventory has entered the destocking cycle [4][50][51]. - Pig: The pressure of pig slaughter is large, and attention should be paid to the intensity of supply reduction. The futures and spot prices are expected to continue to bottom out, but the downward space is limited after the futures price falls below 10000 [5][69][70]. 3.2 Macro - finance - Stock Index Futures: The A - share market has experienced a significant correction, with the stock index futures following the decline. It is recommended to closely monitor the inflow of broad - based ETFs and wait for the stabilization opportunity [6][7][9]. - Precious Metals: The news of the conflict between the US and Iran has repeatedly aggravated market turmoil. The precious metals have rebounded after a sharp decline. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see for the situation to become clear [10][12][13]. 3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The situation between the US and Iran may ease, and the copper price has rebounded. The short - term copper price is in the adjustment stage, and the long - term multi - order layout opportunity may be provided by the short - term adjustment [14][17]. - Alumina: The speculative demand has increased, and the spot price has continued to rise. The current market is in a state of oversupply, and the short - term strategy is to maintain a short - selling idea at high prices [18][20]. - Aluminum: The expectation of the easing of the conflict between the US and Iran has increased, and the downward space of the aluminum price is limited. The short - term aluminum price will maintain a wide - range shock, and the long - term bullish logic still holds [21][23]. - Zinc: The social inventory has decreased, and the zinc price has stopped falling and stabilized. The short - term zinc price is under pressure, but the long - term supply - demand fundamentals are relatively stable [26][29]. - Tin: Trump's easing of the threat to Iran has improved the market risk sentiment, and the tin price has rebounded at night. If the war is expected to end, long - orders can be considered [29][33][34]. - Nickel: The macro - expectation is repeated, and the nickel price fluctuates widely. The short - term is expected to be in a range - bound shock [34][37][38]. - Stainless Steel: The macro - pressure has improved, and the supply - demand is gradually recovering. The short - term is expected to maintain a relatively strong shock [38][40]. - Lithium Carbonate: The macro - expectation is repeated, and the lithium carbonate price fluctuates greatly. The short - term is expected to be in a relatively strong range adjustment [41][44]. - Polysilicon: The supply exceeds demand, the spot price has fallen, and the futures are approaching the limit - down. It is recommended to wait and see [45][46][47]. - Industrial Silicon: The cost center has moved up, the spot price has risen, and the futures have oscillated upward. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low prices [47][49]. 3.4 Ferrous Metals - Steel: The steel price center has risen, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high. The supply and demand of steel are both increasing, and the inventory has entered the destocking cycle [50][51]. - Iron Ore: The macro - disturbance has intensified, and the iron - making production has accelerated. The short - term iron ore main contract is expected to be in a high - level shock [52][53]. - Coking Coal: Some coal types have risen, and the overseas energy commodities have fluctuated greatly. It is recommended to go long on the coking coal 2605 contract at low prices [55][57]. - Coke: The coke spot price has increased, and the cost has pushed up the increase expectation. It is recommended to go long on the coke 2605 contract at low prices [58][59]. - Silicon Iron: The geopolitical conflict continues, and the supply and demand of silicon iron are both increasing. The short - term price is expected to be in a wide - range shock [60][61]. - Manganese Silicon: The market sentiment is changeable, and the cost of manganese silicon has increased. The short - term price is expected to be in a wide - range shock [63][65]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - Meal: The US soybeans are in a high - level shock, and the domestic spot price has fallen slightly. The short - term domestic soybean meal is expected to be in a high - level shock [66][68]. - Pig: The pressure of pig slaughter is large, and attention should be paid to the intensity of supply reduction. The futures and spot prices are expected to continue to bottom out, but the downward space is limited after the futures price falls below 10000 [69][70]. - Corn: Driven by the rise of starch, the corn price is in a high - level shock. The short - term rise of the corn price is restricted [71][73]. - Sugar: The spot price has increased, but the transaction is average. The short - term sugar futures are expected to maintain a high - level and relatively strong shock [74]. - Cotton: The market trading is stable, and the cotton price is adjusted within the range. The short - term cotton price is expected to be in a wide - range shock [77]. - Egg: The demand is boosted by stocking, and the egg price is stable and slightly strong. The short - term egg price is expected to maintain a low - level shock [80][81]. - Oil: Affected by geopolitical factors, the fluctuation of oil is intensified. Different types of oils have different market trends [82][84]. - Jujube: The supply exceeds demand, and the futures price is in a low - level range shock. The price is expected to be in the range of 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton [85][86]. - Apple: The market sentiment is weak, and the futures price has fallen from a high level. The 05 contract is expected to maintain a relatively strong shock, and the 10 contract needs to pay attention to the weather during the flowering period [87][88]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Trump has released a signal of easing, and the oil price has significantly corrected. The short - term oil price is expected to maintain a wide - range shock [90][91]. - PX: There are signs of geopolitical easing, and PX has adjusted with the oil price. It is recommended to exit the long - orders and wait and see [92][93]. - PTA: There are signs of geopolitical easing, and PTA has adjusted with the oil price. It is recommended to pay attention to the oil price trend [94][95]. - Short - fiber: It has limited self - driving force and follows the raw material price fluctuation. It is recommended to pay attention to the passage recovery of the Strait of Hormuz and the downstream cost transmission [96]. - Bottle Chip: The supply is expected to be in short supply, and the supply - demand is expected to be tight. It is recommended to go long on the PR2605 call option with a light position [98][99]. - Ethylene Glycol: Affected by the Middle - East conflict, the cost support is strong, and the destocking amplitude in the near - term is expected to increase. It is recommended to go long on the EG2605 call option with a light position [100]. - Pure Benzene: There are signs of geopolitical easing, and pure benzene has adjusted with the oil price. It is recommended to exit the long - orders and wait and see [101][102]. - Styrene: There are signs of geopolitical easing, and styrene has adjusted with the oil price. It is recommended to follow the strategy of pure benzene [103][104]. - LLDPE: The basis is risk - free, and the transaction is cold. The short - term market is in a wide - range shock [105]. - PP: The upstream shutdown and production reduction have increased, and the 05 contract has significantly reduced inventory. It is recommended to gradually take profit on the 5 - 9 positive spread [106]. - Methanol: Affected by the uncertainty of the Middle - East situation, the fluctuation of methanol is magnified. It is recommended to reduce the long - orders [3][106]. - Caustic Soda: The situation in the Middle - East has escalated, and the caustic soda price is running strongly. The short - term caustic soda price is expected to be strong [107][109]. - PVC: The geopolitical disturbance has brought export expectations, and the emotional fluctuation of PVC has been magnified. The short - term PVC price is passively pushed up [110][111]. - Urea: The situation in the Middle - East is tense, and the emotional fluctuation of urea has increased. It is recommended to take profit on the long - orders and exit in the short - term [112][114]. - Soda Ash: The supply is in a downward trend at a high level, and the cost has boosted the sentiment. The soda ash has rebounded. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - side and pay attention to the 5 - 9 reverse spread [114][118]. - Glass: The daily melting volume has continued to decline, and the cost has been boosted. It is recommended to wait and see [114][118]. - Natural Rubber: Trump has eased the threat to Iran, the market sentiment has eased, and the rubber price has stopped falling and rebounded. It is recommended to wait and see [119][121]. - Synthetic Rubber: Under the tense situation in the Middle - East, the cost support of BR is significantly enhanced, and BR is running strongly. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of falling after the rise [121][123]. 3.7 Container Shipping to Europe - The geopolitical concern has increased, and the European line has significantly risen and then fallen during the session. It is recommended to wait for the market sentiment to cool down and pay attention to the long - order layout opportunity of the peak - season contract [123][124][126].