《有色》日报-20260325

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. Core Views Industrial Silicon - Spot prices are stable, and futures fluctuate after a rally. The main contract rose 30 yuan/ton to 8,605 yuan/ton. The industry faces over - supply pressure, but cost provides support. It is expected to oscillate between 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. Suggest to wait and see and look for opportunities to go long at low prices [1]. Polysilicon - The market is oversupplied, and spot quotes continue to decline. Futures are weakly volatile with a slight rebound. There is still room for prices to fall. It is recommended to wait and see during the price - cut period [3]. Tin - Market risk preference is restored, and tin prices rebound. If the US - Iran conflict shows signs of ending, one can try to layout long positions [4]. Copper - Copper prices are in an adjustment phase, but the medium - long - term supply - demand contradiction remains unchanged. Short - term adjustment may provide opportunities for long - term long positions, but the price is still suppressed. Pay attention to the US - Iran conflict and peak - season inventory reduction [6]. Zinc - Zinc prices are under short - term pressure, but the medium - long - term supply - demand fundamentals are stable. The decline space is limited. Pay attention to zinc ore TC, demand marginal changes, and macro guidance [9]. Nickel - The macro - expectation eases slightly but is highly uncertain. The raw material contradiction supports the price, and the inventory is differentiated. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 130,000 - 142,000 [11]. Stainless Steel - The macro - sentiment suppression eases, raw materials are tight with strong cost support. Steel mills increase production, and demand recovers. It is expected to maintain a strong oscillation in the range of 14,000 - 14,600 [13]. Alumina - The market inventory reduction slows down, and the oversupply pattern persists. Adopt a short - term short - selling strategy. Wait for a clear supply contraction signal or policy - based production capacity regulation [16]. Aluminum - Short - term prices will fluctuate widely with macro - sentiment and geopolitical news. The main contract is expected to run between 23,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to inventory inflection points and the impact of the Middle - East situation on supply [16]. Lithium Carbonate - The macro - suppression eases, the fundamentals are resilient but the marginal driving force weakens. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the range of 145,000 - 160,000 [17]. Aluminum Alloy - The cost of scrap aluminum supports the price, but demand improvement is slow. The market is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the range of 22,000 - 23,500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to demand improvement and the impact of the Middle - East situation on primary aluminum prices [18]. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon - Spot Price and Basis: The prices of East China oxygen - permeable S15530 industrial silicon, East China SI4210 industrial silicon, and Xinjiang 99 silicon remained unchanged on March 24. The basis of oxygen - permeable SI5530, SI4210, and Xinjiang decreased by 4.80%, 13.33%, and 3.87% respectively [1]. - Inter - month Spread: The main contract rose 0.35%. The spreads between different contracts showed various changes, such as the spread between the current month and the first - continued contract increased by 8.33% [1]. - Fundamental Data: National and regional industrial silicon production,开工率, and related product production all decreased. The national industrial silicon production decreased by 26.58%, and the national 开工率 decreased by 21.33% [1]. - Inventory Change: Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory increased by 0.72%, Yunnan decreased by 0.90%, and social inventory increased by 0.18% [1]. Polysilicon - Spot Price and Basis: The average price of N - type re -投料 decreased by 1.73%, and the N - type particle silicon price was stable. The N - type material basis decreased by 13.37% [3]. - Futures Price and Inter - month Spread: The main contract rose 0.83%. The spreads between different contracts had different changes, such as the spread between the current month and the first - continued contract decreased by 51.43% [3]. - Fundamental Data: Monthly polysilicon production decreased by 23.61%, imports increased by 54.97%, and exports increased by 20.51%. Weekly silicon wafer production decreased by 1.67% [3]. - Inventory Change: Polysilicon inventory decreased by 3.64%, and silicon wafer inventory decreased by 2.47% [3]. Tin - Spot Price and Basis: The price of SMM 1 tin increased by 0.66%, and the SMM 1 tin premium remained unchanged. The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 13.19% [4]. - Import - Export Ratio and Profit - Loss: The import loss decreased by 13.93%, and the Shanghai - London ratio remained unchanged [4]. - Inter - month Spread: The spreads between different contracts changed significantly, such as the spread between 2604 - 2605 decreased by 234.29% [4]. - Fundamental Data: February tin ore imports decreased by 3.69%, SMM refined tin production decreased by 23.91%, and the average 开工率 of SMM refined tin decreased by 23.92% [4]. - Inventory Change: SHEF inventory decreased by 19.75%, and social inventory decreased by 17.82% [4]. Copper - Price and Basis: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 1.23%, and the premium decreased. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 219.32% [6]. - Inter - month Spread: The spreads between different contracts had different changes, such as the spread between 2604 - 2605 increased by 60 yuan/ton [6]. - Fundamental Data: February electrolytic copper production decreased by 3.13%, imports decreased by 24.95%. The 开工率 of electrolytic copper rod and recycled copper rod increased [6]. - Inventory Change: Global visible inventory started to decline this week. Domestic social inventory decreased by 14.54%, and SHFE inventory decreased by 5.15% [6]. Zinc - Price and Spread: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 0.84%, and the premium increased by 5 yuan/ton. The import loss decreased by 36.46 yuan/ton [9]. - Inter - month Spread: The spreads between different contracts had small changes, such as the spread between 2604 - 2605 decreased by 5 yuan/ton [9]. - Fundamental Data: February refined zinc production decreased by 9.99%, imports decreased by 81.26%, and exports increased by 91.58%. The 开工率 of related industries increased [9]. - Inventory Change: Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased by 7.47%, and LME inventory decreased by 0.06% [9]. Nickel - Price and Basis: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 1.23%, and the premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel decreased by 4.58%. The LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 4 dollars/ton [11]. - Cost of Electrowinning Nickel: The cost of integrated MHP to produce electrowinning nickel decreased by 0.69%, and the cost of integrated high - grade nickel matte to produce electrowinning nickel increased by 11.34% [11]. - New - energy Material Price: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.95%, and other prices remained stable [11]. - Inter - month Spread: The spreads between different contracts had different changes, such as the spread between 2604 - 2605 increased by 130 yuan/ton [11]. - Supply - Demand and Inventory: Chinese refined nickel production decreased by 7.45%, and imports increased by 84.63%. SHFE inventory decreased by 0.03%, and social inventory increased by 1.10% [11]. Stainless Steel - Price and Spread: The price of 304/2B stainless steel increased. The spot - futures price difference decreased by 38.32% [13]. - Raw Material Price: The price of Philippine laterite nickel ore and other raw materials remained stable, and the price of 304 scrap stainless steel increased by 2.03% [13]. - Inter - month Spread: The spreads between different contracts had different changes, such as the spread between 2604 - 2605 decreased by 15 yuan/ton [13]. - Fundamental Data: Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production increased by 44.07%, and Indonesian production decreased by 10.84%. Imports, exports, and net exports all changed significantly [13]. - Inventory Change: 300 - series social inventory decreased by 1.61%, and SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 4.64% [13]. Alumina - Price and Spread: The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 0.13%, and the premium increased. The price of alumina in different regions remained unchanged [16]. - Import - Export Ratio and Profit - Loss: The import loss of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 8.5 yuan/ton, and the import loss of alumina decreased by 53.8 yuan/ton [16]. - Inter - month Spread: The spreads between different contracts had different changes, such as the spread between AL 2604 - 2605 increased by 10 yuan/ton [16]. - Fundamental Data: February alumina production decreased by 10.63%, and domestic and overseas electrolytic aluminum production decreased. The 开工率 of related industries had different changes [16]. - Inventory Change: Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 0.83%, and aluminum rod social inventory decreased by 3.25% [16]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and Basis: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.68%, and the basis decreased by 114.17%. The price of lithium spodumene concentrate increased by 2.17% [17]. - Inter - month Spread: The spreads between different contracts had different changes, such as the spread between 2604 - 2605 increased by 680 yuan/ton [17]. - Fundamental Data: February lithium carbonate production decreased by 15.13%, and demand decreased by 10.57%. The 开工率 decreased by 14.29% [17]. - Inventory Change: Lithium carbonate total inventory decreased by 4.76%, and downstream inventory decreased by 5.01% [17]. Aluminum Alloy - Price and Spread: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained stable, and the price of Jiangxi Baotai Network ADC12 decreased by 0.42%. The price difference between Jiangxi Baotai Network ADC12 and A00 aluminum decreased by 36.11% [18]. - Inter - month Spread: The spreads between different contracts had different changes, such as the spread between 2604 - 2605 decreased by 65 yuan/ton [18]. - Fundamental Data: February recycled aluminum alloy ingot production decreased by 41.31%, and primary aluminum alloy ingot production decreased by 30.99%. The 开工率 of related industries decreased [18]. - Inventory Change: Recycled aluminum alloy social inventory decreased by 1.79%, and factory - area finished product inventory decreased by 8.11% [18].