大越期货尿素早报-20260325

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Urea Morning Report - Report date: March 25, 2026 - Author: Zhu Tianyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [2][3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of urea are neutral, with high daily production and operating rates, recovering industrial demand, differentiated agricultural demand, and de - stocking of comprehensive inventory. The urea主力合约 is expected to fluctuate today. The main influencing factors are international prices and domestic demand marginal changes, and the main risk point is the change in export policy [4][5] Group 4: Urea Overview Fundamentals - The current daily production and operating rates are at a high level compared to the same period. Although there are some device overhauls in the short term, the daily production will still remain high, with relatively abundant overall supply. Industrial demand has recovered, and the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine have significantly increased. Agricultural demand is differentiated, and the comprehensive inventory is being de - stocked. The external market price has continued to strengthen due to geopolitical factors, and the price difference between domestic and foreign exports has widened. The increase in domestic prices is limited by guidance [4] Basis - The basis of the UR2605 contract is - 4, and the premium/discount ratio is - 0.2%, which is neutral [4] Inventory - The UR comprehensive inventory is 97.6 tons (- 14.2), which is neutral [4] Disk - The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish trend [4] Main positions - The net short position of the UR main contract has decreased, showing a bearish trend [4] Expectation - The main contract of urea is expected to fluctuate strongly, with high daily production compared to the same period, recovering industrial demand, differentiated agricultural demand, and de - stocking of inventory. It is expected that UR will fluctuate today [4] Group 5: Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Import Volume | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 2245.5 | | 1956.81 | 448.38 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | [9] Group 6: Market Data Spot Market - The price of the spot delivery product is 1860 (unchanged), the price of Shandong spot is 1880 (+10), the price of Henan spot is 1860 (unchanged), and the FOB China price is 4913 [6] Futures Market - The price of the 05 contract is 1864 (-20), the basis is - 4 (+20), the price of UR01 is 1902 (-8), the price of UR05 is 1864 (-20), and the price of UR09 is 1923 (-20) [6] Inventory - The number of warehouse receipts is 8712 (unchanged), the UR comprehensive inventory is 97.6 (unchanged), the UR manufacturer inventory is 80.9 (unchanged), and the UR port inventory is 16.7 (unchanged) [6]