大越期货沪锌期货早报-20260325

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai zinc futures show a volatile trend, closing with a doji star, accompanied by an increase in trading volume. Both long and short positions reduced, with long positions decreasing more significantly. Overall, it was a volatile market with reduced trading volume. The price was volatile, and long - position holders actively exited, while short - position holders also exited to wait and see. In the short term, the market is expected to consolidate. Technically, the price closed below the moving - average system, which lost its short - term support. The short - term KDJ indicator rose and was operating in the weak zone, alleviating the oversold condition. The trend indicator rose, with the long - position strength increasing and the short - position strength decreasing, and the dominance of short - position strength narrowing. The operation suggestion is that the Shanghai zinc ZN2605 will be in a consolidation phase [17]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals - In November 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.197 million tons, consumption was 1.168 million tons, with a supply surplus of 29,000 tons. From January to November, global zinc plate production was 12.7561 million tons, consumption was 13.1065 million tons, with a supply shortage of 350,400 tons. In November, global zinc ore production was 1.069 million tons. From January to November, global zinc ore production was 12.1419 million tons. The overall situation is bullish [2]. 3.2 Basis - The spot price was 22,910, and the basis was - 65, indicating a neutral situation [2]. 3.3 Inventory - On March 24, LME zinc inventory decreased by 75 tons to 117,100 tons compared to the previous day, and the SHFE zinc inventory warrants decreased by 774 tons to 99,824 tons compared to the previous day, showing a bullish situation [2]. 3.4 Market Trends - The previous day, Shanghai zinc showed a volatile trend, closing below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was downward, indicating a bearish situation [2]. 3.5 Main Positions - The main positions were net long, but long positions decreased, showing a bullish situation [2]. 3.6 Futures Market Quotes on March 24 - The trading volume of zinc futures on March 24 was 206,373 lots, with a total trading value of 2.37325189 billion yuan. The open interest was 185,428 lots, a decrease of 5,547 lots compared to the previous day. Different delivery months had different price changes and trading volumes [3]. 3.7 Domestic Spot Market Quotes on March 24 - The price of zinc concentrate spot TC was 1,500 yuan/metal ton, and the comprehensive TC of imported zinc concentrate was 20 US dollars/dry ton. The price of 0 zinc in different regions such as Shanghai, Guangdong, Tianjin, and Zhejiang had different price ranges and increases [4]. 3.8 National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics - From March 12 to March 23, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in the main domestic markets decreased from 231,100 tons to 219,500 tons, a decrease of 16,700 tons compared to March 16 and 9,500 tons compared to March 19 [5]. 3.9 Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report on March 24 - The total zinc warrants on March 24 were 99,824 tons, a decrease of 774 tons compared to the previous day. Different regions had different changes in warrants, with some increasing and some decreasing [6]. 3.10 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution on March 24 - The total LME zinc inventory on March 24 was 117,100 tons, a decrease of 75 tons compared to the previous day. Different storage locations had different inventory changes [7]. 3.11 National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary on March 24 - The price of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in different regions such as Jiyuan, Linzhou, and Kunming was mostly 19,770 yuan/ton, with an increase of 150 yuan/ton [8]. 3.12 National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes on March 24 - The price of 0 zinc ingots from different smelters such as Zhengzhou Express, Sanmenxia Century, and Guangdong Zhongjin Lingnan increased by 190 yuan/ton [11]. 3.13 Domestic Refined Zinc Production in February 2026 - The planned production in February 2026 was 468,700 tons, and the actual production was 470,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.72% and a year - on - year increase of 10.01%. The capacity utilization rate was 65.87%, and the planned production for March was 490,200 tons [13]. 3.14 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes on March 24 - The processing fees of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in different domestic regions were mostly between 1,400 - 1,600 yuan/metal ton, and the processing fee of imported 48% - grade zinc concentrate was 20 US dollars/ton [15]. 3.15 Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking on March 24 - The total trading volume of members was 211,557 lots, an increase of 29,277 lots. The total long - position volume was 68,967 lots, a decrease of 1,979 lots, and the total short - position volume was 70,117 lots, a decrease of 305 lots [16].