大越期货白糖早报-20260325

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zheng sugar is expected to oscillate upwards. The K-line has stood above the long-term moving average, and the moving averages are starting to diverge upwards. Technically, there is a trend of moving into a right-side market. With the upcoming domestic consumption peak season, rising crude oil prices, and increasing prices of sugar-based ethanol, the price of white sugar is indirectly supported. The price of white sugar moves forward three steps and retreats two steps, with the center of gravity slowly rising. The main contract is about to shift to the 09 contract. The strategy is to go long on dips [5][8]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - No relevant content 2. Daily Tips - Fundamentals: Datagro predicts a sugar deficit of 2.68 million tons in the 26/27 sugar season. ISO expects a global sugar market surplus of 1.22 million tons in the 25/26 sugar season, down from the previous estimate of 1.63 million tons. Covrig Analytics forecasts that the global sugar surplus in the 26/27 season will shrink to 1.4 million tons, lower than the 4.7 million tons in the 25/26 season. Green Pool anticipates a global sugar supply surplus of 156,000 tons in the 26/27 season, down from 2.74 million tons in the 25/26 season. As of the end of January 2026, the cumulative sugar production in the 25/26 season in China was 6.89 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 2.9 million tons, and the sales rate was 42.09%. From January to February 2026, China imported 520,000 tons of sugar, a year-on-year increase of 440,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 142,100 tons, a year-on-year increase of 32,900 tons [4]. - Basis: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5,470 yuan, and the basis is 10 (for the 09 contract), with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [5]. - Inventory: As of the end of January, the industrial inventory in the 25/26 sugar season was 3.99 million tons [5]. - Market: The 20-day moving average is upward, and the K-line is above the 20-day moving average, indicating a bullish trend [5]. - Main Position: The position is bearish, the net short position is increasing, and the main trend is bearish [5]. - Likely Factors: Positive factors include a possible decline in Brazilian sugar production in the 26/27 season, an increase in syrup tariffs, the use of sucrose in the new formula of American cola, and rising crude oil prices. Negative factors include an increase in global sugar production, a global supply surplus in the new season, a drop in the price of foreign sugar to around 14.5 cents per pound, and the opening of the import profit window, which increases import pressure [6]. 3. Today's Focus - No relevant content 4. Fundamental Data - Supply and Demand Forecasts by Institutions: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 and 26/27 sugar seasons. For example, ISO expects a global sugar market surplus of 1.22 million tons in the 25/26 season, StoneX forecasts a surplus of 870,000 tons, and Green Pool anticipates a surplus of 156,000 tons in the 26/27 season [4][8][30]. - Sugar Production and Consumption in China: From 2024/25 to 2025/26, the sugarcane and beet planting areas, yields, and sugar production have changed. In 2025/26, the estimated sugar production is 11.7 million tons, the import volume is 5 million tons, and the consumption is 15.7 million tons [32]. - Imported Raw Sugar Processing Costs: The cost of imported raw sugar processed with a 50% tariff varies with the ICE raw sugar closing price and the RMB exchange rate. For example, on March 11, 2026, the quota - free cost was 4,015 yuan per ton, and the out - of - quota cost was 5,100 yuan per ton [36]. 5. Position Data - No relevant content