集运早报-20260325

Group 1: Futures Market Data - EC2604 had a closing price of 1898.9, a decline of 2.99%, a basis of -342.4, a trading volume of 18908, an open interest of 15267, and a change in open interest of -2429 [2] - EC2605 had a closing price of 2178.2, a decline of 8.43%, a basis of -621.7, a trading volume of 1142, an open interest of 1569, and a change in open interest of -245 [2] - EC2606 had a closing price of 2439.2, a decline of 9.42%, a basis of -882.7, a trading volume of 11832, an open interest of 13405, and a change in open interest of -907 [2] - EC2607 had a closing price of 2567.0, a decline of 7.76%, a basis of -1010.5, a trading volume of 318, an open interest of 913, and a change in open interest of -79 [2] - EC2608 had a closing price of 2410.8, a decline of 5.98%, a basis of -854.3, a trading volume of 1175, an open interest of 2828, and a change in open interest of -117 [2] - EC2609 had a closing price of 1720.0, a decline of 6.29%, a basis of -163.5, a trading volume not shown, an open interest of 495, and a change in open interest of -7 [2] - EC2610 had a closing price of 1573.0, a decline of 4.55%, a basis of -16.5, a trading volume of 2309, an open interest of 7502, and a change in open interest of -15 [2] - EC2612 had a closing price of 1774.0, a decline of 2.26%, a basis of -217.5, a trading volume of 70, an open interest of 448, and a change in open interest of 10 [2] Group 2: Month - to - Month Spread Data - The spread of EC2604 - 2606 was -540.3, with a day - on - day increase of 195.2 and a week - on - week decrease of 103.6 [2] - The spread of EC2604 - 2605 was -279.3, with a day - on - day increase of 142.1 and a week - on - week decrease of 231.7 [2] - The spread of EC2606 - 2610 was 866.2, with a day - on - day decrease of 178.7 and a week - on - week increase of 49.6 [2] Group 3: Spot Market Data - The spot price of the European line (Tallat) on March 16, 2026, was 1556.49 points, with a 0.71% increase from the previous period [2] - The SCFI of the European line on March 20, 2026, was 1636 dollars/TEU, with a 1.11% increase from the previous period [2] Group 4: Market Analysis - The EC2604 contract is entering the delivery logic, with a contradiction between weak fundamentals and potential fuel cost increases; the EC2610 contract follows the cost - support logic with high geopolitical risks. On Tuesday, both aspects of news were bearish, and the market is expected to be weak [3] Group 5: European Line Spot Situation - In Week 13, MSK's price was flat at 2250 dollars, PA reported 2400 - 2500 dollars, and some voyages were 2200 dollars (2000 dollars for large - volume orders). The average spot price converted to the futures price was about 1700 - 1800 points. COSCO announced a price increase for the European line in April to 5100 dollars, and CMA issued a price - increase letter for April of 3500 dollars [4] - In Week 14, MSK reported 2650 dollars (a 400 - dollar increase from the previous week) [4] - In Week 15, after Tuesday's market close, the price was reported at 2350 dollars (a 300 - dollar decrease from the previous week) [4] - In early April, ONE reported 2500 dollars, EMC reported 3160 dollars, and OOCL reported 3100 dollars [4] Group 6: Related News - On March 25, US media reported that the US had sent a 15 - point plan to Iran to end the Middle - East war. The plan involved Iran's ballistic missile and nuclear programs and maritime shipping lanes. Pakistan's Army Chief Munir had become an important communication bridge between the US and Iran, and Egypt and Turkey encouraged Iran to engage constructively [5]