大越期货棉花早报-20260325

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of cotton are generally positive, with expected consumption of 2500 million tons and production of 2480 million tons in the 26/27 global market. In 2026, the cotton planting area in Xinjiang is expected to decrease by over 10%. The export of textiles and clothing from January to February increased by 17.6% year - on - year, and the import of cotton and cotton yarn also showed growth [4]. - The basis is positive as the spot price of 3128b cotton has an average national price of 16732, with a basis of 1377 (09 contract), indicating a premium over the futures [4]. - The inventory situation is mixed. The expected ending inventory in the 25/26 annual report of the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture is 829 million tons, which is a negative factor. However, the overall market has positive expectations due to factors like the traditional peak season and improved Sino - US relations [4]. - The market outlook is that the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton is about to shift to the 09 contract. The support level is around 15000, and the resistance level is around 15700. A trading strategy of range - bound operation is recommended [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review No information provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: The ICAC predicts 2500 million tons of global consumption and 2480 million tons of production in the 26/27 season. In 2026, the cotton - planting area in Xinjiang may be reduced by over 10%. The USDA's March report shows a production of 2634.3 million tons, consumption of 2581.7 million tons, and an ending inventory of 1663.1 million tons in the 25/26 season. From January to February, the export of textiles and clothing was 50.45 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 17.6%. China imported 37 million tons of cotton and 29 million tons of cotton yarn during this period, with year - on - year increases of 41% and 8 million tons respectively. The Ministry of Agriculture's 25/26 season report estimates a production of 664 million tons, an import of 140 million tons, a consumption of 760 million tons, and an ending inventory of 829 million tons [4]. - Basis: The spot price of 3128b cotton has a national average of 16732, with a basis of 1377 (09 contract), indicating a premium over the futures [4]. - Inventory: The expected ending inventory in the 25/26 annual report of the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture is 829 million tons [4]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is near the 20 - day moving average, showing a neutral trend [4]. - Main Position: The position is long - biased, but the net long position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear [4]. - Expectation: The textile export from January to February was good. With the arrival of the traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April", the reduction of US tariffs, and the improvement of Sino - US relations, it is beneficial for textile exports. The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton is about to shift to the 09 contract. The support level is around 15000, and the resistance level is around 15700. A range - bound trading strategy is recommended [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast (March): In the 25/26 season, the total production is 2634.3 million tons, the total consumption is 2581.7 million tons, the total import is 956 million tons, the total export is 956.1 million tons, and the ending inventory is 1663.1 million tons [10][11]. - Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (ICAC): In the 26/27 season, the production is expected to be 2480 million tons (a 4% decrease), the consumption is 2500 million tons (a 0.7% decrease), the beginning inventory is 1677.7 million tons (a 5.6% increase), the ending inventory is 1660 million tons (a 1% decrease), the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 66.40% (a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease), the trade volume is 960 million tons (a 1% decrease), the yield per unit is 822 kg/hectare (a 1.6% decrease), and the planting area is 30.2 million hectares (a 0.7% decrease) [12]. - China's Cotton Data (Ministry of Agriculture): In the 25/26 season, the production is 664 million tons, the import is 140 million tons, the consumption is 760 million tons, and the ending inventory is 829 million tons [14]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided.