大越期货油脂早报-20260325

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall price of oils and fats is expected to oscillate with an upward bias. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, causing the export of new US soybeans to be frustrated and prices to be under pressure. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The soaring international crude oil price drives up the oil price. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable. [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: The MPOB report shows that in December, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 5.46% month - on - month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month - on - month to 1.3165 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory increased by 7.59% month - on - month to 3.0506 million tons. The report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil in January increased by 29% month - on - month. Subsequently, as it enters the production - reduction season, the supply pressure of palm oil decreases. [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8810, with a basis of 216, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [2] - Inventory: On January 9th, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, compared with 1.08 million tons previously, a month - on - month decrease of 60,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 14.7%. [2] - Market: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. [2] - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract are decreasing. [2] - Expectation: The price of soybean oil Y2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 8400 - 8800. [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report shows slightly bearish results, and the subsequent supply pressure decreases. [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 9590, with a basis of 54, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. [3] - Inventory: On January 9th, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, compared with 733,800 tons previously, a month - on - month increase of 2200 tons and a year - on - year increase of 46%. [3] - Market: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. [3] - Main Position: The short positions of the main palm oil contract are decreasing. [3] - Expectation: The price of palm oil P2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 9200 - 9800. [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report shows slightly bearish results, and the subsequent supply pressure decreases. [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10320, with a basis of 507, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [4] - Inventory: On January 9th, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, compared with 270,000 tons previously, a month - on - month decrease of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 44%. [4] - Market: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. [4] - Main Position: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract are decreasing. [4] - Expectation: The price of rapeseed oil OI2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 9600 - 10000. [4] Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - Bullish Factors: The US soybean stock - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply, and the palm oil production season is affected by tremors. [5] - Bearish Factors: The price of oils and fats is at a relatively high historical level, the domestic inventory of oils and fats is continuously increasing, the macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high. [5] - Main Logic: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose. [5]