《黑色》日报-20260325

1. Investment Rating of the Report - The provided reports do not mention any industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - The black metal market is in a high - level volatile trend. Affected by the decline in the futures market, the basis has strengthened. The supply - demand of the steel industry is basically balanced with few contradictions. Currently, both supply and demand are increasing, and last week's apparent demand increased more than production. The industry is in the seasonal de - stocking phase. Later, the height of the recovery of apparent demand needs to be monitored. Raw materials support steel prices due to iron ore supply disruptions and the energy substitution logic of coking coal. Steel prices have risen to the upper limit of the range, and the short - term industry contradictions are not significant. The steel price center may rise due to raw material promotion, but attention should be paid to the interference of natural gas fluctuations on black metals including coking coal [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore main contract maintained a high - level volatile trend. Affected by a super typhoon, Rio Tinto's Dampier Port was closed until Saturday, and short - term Australian shipments are expected to decline but will be replenished later. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipments increased slightly week - on - week, with Australian shipments continuing to rise and BHP's shipments falling to a historical low. The impact of the Australian typhoon on shipments needs to be monitored. On the demand side, last week's hot metal production increased significantly week - on - week as previously - overhauled steel mills resumed production. Currently, terminal demand recovery is slow, domestic demand is relatively weak, and steel exports are uncertain. Attention should be paid to the height and sustainability of hot metal production recovery. In terms of inventory, steel mill inventories increased week - on - week, and port inventories decreased slightly. It is expected that port inventories will either slightly decrease or remain flat as arrivals return to a low level and resumption of production drives an increase in port clearance. In the short term, the iron ore main contract will operate in a high - level volatile range [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Coking Coal: The coking coal futures showed a high - level decline. Spot auction prices in Shanxi turned to more increases than decreases, and Mongolian coal prices fluctuated with the futures. After the holiday, restocking demand gradually recovered. The US - Iran conflict caused high - level fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas. On the supply side, coal mines gradually resumed production, and daily coal production increased. Imported coal port inventories accumulated at a slower pace and remained at a relatively high level after customs clearance. On the demand side, after the Two Sessions, steel mill production restrictions were lifted, hot metal production increased, and coking production also increased. With cost increases, coking coal prices are expected to bottom out and rebound. In terms of inventory, coal washing plants, coking enterprises, and ports accumulated inventory, while coal mines, steel mills, and ports reduced inventory, with overall inventory starting to accumulate downstream. It is recommended to go long on the coking coal 2605 contract in the range of 1150 - 1350 and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. - Coke: The coke futures showed a high - level decline. Mainstream coking enterprises initiated the first round of price increases on March 23, which are expected to be successfully implemented. The increase in coking coal prices provides cost support for coke price increases. Port prices fluctuate with the futures. On the supply side, coke price adjustments lag behind coking coal, and coking production prices have increased significantly to make up for coke losses. After the Two Sessions, coking plant operations began to increase. On the demand side, after the Two Sessions, steel mill production restrictions were lifted, hot metal production increased, steel prices rebounded from a low level, and restocking demand will gradually recover later. In terms of inventory, coking plants reduced inventory, while steel mills and ports accumulated inventory, with overall inventory slightly increasing at a medium level. The short - term supply - demand of coke is basically balanced. It is recommended to go long on the coke 2605 contract in the range of 1700 - 1900 and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon main contract rose slightly, with the price rising on the futures market and then falling back. Geopolitical conflicts affected coal price expectations, and market sentiment was volatile. A ferrosilicon plant in Ningxia started a 33000kva ferrosilicon furnace and produced iron. This week, ferrosilicon production increased slightly week - on - week, with production increasing in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Gansu. Due to recent price increases, manufacturers' profits have improved, and it is expected that supply will continue to grow. In terms of demand, hot metal production increased significantly week - on - week, and steel mill overhaul impacts continued to decline. Non - steel demand, such as magnesium ingot daily production, was at a relatively high level and increased. Ferrosilicon exports weakened, but export profits improved. Lanthanum prices remained stable, but rising coal prices may drive up lanthanum prices, providing cost support for ferrosilicon. In the short term, affected by international geopolitical conflicts, market sentiment is volatile, supply and demand of ferrosilicon both increase, and costs are affected by coal. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production rhythm and cost changes. It is expected that prices will fluctuate widely in the range of 5700 - 6800, and it is recommended to wait and see, or try to go long on ferrosilicon and short on ferromanganese for price repair [7]. - Ferromanganese: The ferromanganese main contract rose and then fell, closing slightly lower. The Global Manganese Industry Association announced energy - saving and emission - reduction measures, with a total reduction of 30%. Spot manganese - silicon sentiment was high, with no low - price sales in the market, and increased participation in hedging on the futures market. Manganese ore spot was strong. Last week, ferromanganese supply decreased slightly week - on - week, with consecutive weeks of declining operating rates. Inner Mongolia's production decreased slightly, and southern production pressure remained high. Yunnan's power price subsidies led to some resumption of production. New production capacity will be launched in the second quarter, and attention should be paid to changes in ferromanganese supply. In terms of demand, hot metal production increased significantly week - on - week, and steel mill overhaul impacts continued to decline. In terms of cost, some manganese ore port supplies were in tight balance, and factors such as the resumption of manganese - silicon production and rising shipping costs pushed up prices. Coking coal price increases also drove up chemical coke prices, pushing up ferromanganese costs. In the short term, affected by international geopolitical conflicts, market sentiment is volatile, supply and demand of ferromanganese both increase, and costs are pushed up. It is expected that prices will fluctuate widely [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Threaded Steel: Spot prices in East China, North China, and South China were 3240 yuan/ton, 3210 yuan/ton, and 3300 yuan/ton respectively. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts were 3145 yuan/ton, 3173 yuan/ton, and 3196 yuan/ton respectively, all showing declines [1]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: Spot prices in East China, North China, and South China were 3300 yuan/ton, 3240 yuan/ton, and 3300 yuan/ton respectively. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts were 3324 yuan/ton, 3331 yuan/ton, and 3333 yuan/ton respectively, all showing declines [1]. Cost and Profit - Cost: Steel billet price was 2990 yuan/ton, and slab price was 3730 yuan/ton, both unchanged. Jiangsu electric - furnace threaded steel cost was 3264 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton; Jiangsu converter threaded steel cost was 3184 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton [1]. - Profit: East China hot - rolled coil profit was 38 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton; North China hot - rolled coil profit was - 32 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton; East China threaded steel profit was - 12 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton; North China threaded steel profit was - 52 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton; South China threaded steel profit was 188 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton [1]. Production - Daily Average Hot Metal Production: It was 228.2 tons, up 7.0 tons or 3.1% from the previous value [1]. - Five - Variety Steel Production: It was 839.8 tons, up 18.9 tons or 2.3% from the previous value. Threaded steel production was 203.3 tons, up 8.0 tons or 4.1%, including an increase of 5.1 tons or 17.6% in electric - furnace production and 2.9 tons or 1.8% in converter production. Hot - rolled coil production was 300.2 tons, up 4.9 tons or 1.7% [1]. Inventory - Five - Variety Steel Inventory: It was 1946.2 tons, down 28.7 tons or - 1.5% from the previous value. Threaded steel inventory was 889.4 tons, down 4.8 tons or - 0.5%; hot - rolled coil inventory was 461.3 tons, down 10.3 tons or - 2.2% [1]. Transaction and Demand - Building Materials Transaction Volume: It was 9.4 tons, down 1.6 tons or - 14.9% from the previous value. The apparent demand for five - variety steel was 868.5 tons, up 70.4 tons or 8.8%; the apparent demand for threaded steel was 208.1 tons, up 31.3 tons or 17.7%; the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil was 310.5 tons, up 15.2 tons or 5.1% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - Warehouse Receipt Cost: The warehouse receipt cost of Karara fines was 1956 yuan/ton, up 2.2 yuan/ton or 0.2%; the warehouse receipt cost of PB fines was 854.5 yuan/ton, up 1.1 yuan/ton or 0.1%; the warehouse receipt cost of Brazilian mixed fines was 858.2 yuan/ton, up 1.1 yuan/ton or 0.1%; the warehouse receipt cost of Jinbuba fines was 891.6 yuan/ton, up 1.1 yuan/ton or 0.1% [4]. - 05 Contract Basis: The 05 contract basis of Karara fines was 111.1 yuan/ton, down 2.8 yuan/ton or - 2.5%; the 05 contract basis of PB fines was 30.5 yuan/ton, down 3.9 yuan/ton or - 11.3%; the 05 contract basis of Brazilian mixed fines was 34.2 yuan/ton, down 3.9 yuan/ton or - 10.3%; the 05 contract basis of Jinbuba fines was 67.6 yuan/ton, down 3.9 yuan/ton or - 5.5% [4]. - 5 - 9 Spread: It was 33.5 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan/ton or 3.1%; the 9 - 1 spread was 24.0 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - Rizhao Port Spot Prices: The price of Karara fines was 960.0 yuan/wet ton, up 2.0 yuan/ton or 0.2%; the price of PB fines was 797.0 yuan/wet ton, down 1.0 yuan/ton or 0.1%; the price of Brazilian mixed fines was 835.0 yuan/wet ton, up 1.0 yuan/ton or 0.1%; the price of Jinbuba fines was 743.0 yuan/wet ton, up 1.0 yuan/ton or 0.1% [4]. - Singapore Exchange 62% Fe Swap: It was 106.7 dollars/ton, unchanged [4]. Supply - 45 - Port Arrivals (Weekly): It was 2271.6 tons, up 56.6 tons or 2.6% from the previous value. Global shipments (weekly) were 3144.3 tons, up 3048.8 tons or 3.1% from the previous value. The national monthly import volume was 9763.8 tons, down 2200.9 tons or - 18.4% from the previous value [4]. Demand - 247 Steel Mills' Daily Average Hot Metal (Weekly): It was 228.2 tons, up 7.0 tons or 3.1% from the previous value. The 45 - port daily average port clearance (weekly) was 321.0 tons, up 3.1 tons or 1.0% from the previous value. The national monthly pig iron production was 6072.2 tons, down 6072.2 tons or - 100.0% from the previous value; the national monthly crude steel production was 0.0 tons, down 6817.7 tons or - 100.0% from the previous value [4]. Inventory Changes - 45 - Port Inventory: It was 17187.52 tons, down 89.1 tons or - 0.5% from the previous value. The 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory (weekly) was 9034.1 tons, up 105.0 tons or 1.2% from the previous value. The 64 steel mills' inventory available days (weekly) were 21.0 days, down 2.0 days or - 8.7% from the previous value [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - Coke Spot Prices: The price of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) was 1681 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) was 1767 yuan/ton, unchanged [6]. - Coke Futures Contracts: The 05 contract was 1798 yuan/ton, down 49 yuan/ton or - 2.7%; the 09 contract was 1874 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan/ton or - 2.2% [6]. - Basis and Spread: The 05 basis was - 31 yuan/ton, up 49 yuan/ton; the 09 basis was - 107 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan/ton; the 05 - 09 spread was - 76 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton [6]. - Coking Profit: The Steel Union's coking profit (weekly) was 0 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton [6]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - Coking Coal Spot Prices: The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) was 1330 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton or 2.3%; the price of Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse receipt) was 1337 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton or - 0.7% [6]. - Coking Coal Futures Contracts: The 05 contract was 1250 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton or - 3.1%; the 09 contract was 1372 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton or - 0.5% [6]. - Basis and Spread: The 05 basis was 88 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; the 09 basis was - 35 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton; the JM05 - JM09 spread was - 122 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton [6]. - Sample Coal Mine Profit: It was 495 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton or 2.7% [6]. Supply - Coke Production (Weekly): The daily average production of all - sample coking plants was 64.2 tons, up 0.3 tons or 0.5% from the previous value; the daily average production of 247 steel mills was 47.3 tons, up 0.3 tons or 0.7% from the previous value [6]. - Coking Coal Production (Weekly): The raw coal production of Fenwei sample coal mines was 6088 tons, up 7.0 tons or 0.8% from the previous value; the clean coal production was 448.5 tons, up 2.6 tons or 0.64% from the previous value [6]. Demand - Hot Metal Production (Weekly): The 247 steel mills' hot metal