沥青期货早报-20260325

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply - side: In March 2026, the total domestic asphalt production plan was 2.187 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 251,000 tons (13.0%), and a year - on - year decrease of 43,000 tons (1.9%). The capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples this week was 22.7709%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.80 percentage points. The output of sample enterprises was 380,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.31%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 1.163 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.96%. Refineries reduced production this week to ease supply pressure, and the supply pressure may decrease next week [7]. - Demand - side: The construction of heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, and modified asphalt is generally below the historical average level. The current demand is lower than the historical average level [7]. - Cost - side: The daily processing asphalt profit was - 686.52 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit in Shandong refineries was 769.12 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 48.92%. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. Crude oil weakened, and it is expected that the support will weaken in the short term [7]. - Inventory: Social inventory was 1.195 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.36%; factory inventory was 788,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.25%; port diluted asphalt inventory was 600,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25.00%. Social and factory inventories continued to accumulate, while port inventory continued to decline [7]. - Market Outlook: It is expected that the market will fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term, and the asphalt 2606 contract will fluctuate in the range of 4,292 - 4,510 [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Likely to Rise: The relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support [9]. - Likely to Fall: High - priced goods have insufficient demand; overall demand is declining, and the expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States is strengthening [10]. - Main Logic: On the supply side, the supply pressure remains high; on the demand side, the recovery is weak [11]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - Futures Closing Price: Most contracts showed a downward trend. For example, the 06 contract closed at 4,401, a decrease of 260 from the previous value, with a decline of 5.58% [13]. - Basis: On March 24, the spot price in Shandong was 4,370 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 06 contract was - 31 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was at a discount to the futures price [7]. - Inventory and Other Data: Social inventory was 1.195 million tons, factory inventory was 788,000 tons, and port diluted asphalt inventory was 600,000 tons. The weekly output of sample enterprises was 380,000 tons, and the weekly maintenance volume was 1.163 million tons [7][15]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt from 2020 to 2026, which helps to analyze the price relationship between the spot and futures markets [18][20]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread: The report shows the spread trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts of asphalt from 2020 to 2026, which is useful for spread trading analysis [22][23]. - Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend: It shows the price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 to 2026, reflecting the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [26]. - Crude Oil Crack Spread: It presents the crack spread trends of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) from 2020 to 2026, which is important for analyzing the profitability of refining [29][30]. - Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend: It shows the price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2026, which helps to analyze the relative value of different products [33]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report shows the price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China and Shandong from 2020 to 2026, which helps to understand the regional price differences of asphalt [36]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis: - Asphalt Profit: It shows the historical profit trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2026, reflecting the profitability of asphalt production [38]. - Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread: It presents the spread trends between coking and asphalt profits from 2020 to 2026, which is important for analyzing the profit distribution between different production processes [41][42]. - Supply - side Analysis: - Shipment Volume: It shows the weekly shipment volume of asphalt from 2020 to 2026, which reflects the supply situation in the market [44]. - Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory: It presents the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2026, which helps to understand the inventory level of raw materials [47]. - Production Volume: It shows the weekly and monthly production volume of asphalt from 2019 to 2026, which reflects the overall supply capacity [50]. - Maya Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend: It shows the price of Maya crude oil and the monthly production of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2026, which is related to the cost of asphalt production [55]. - Refinery Asphalt Production: It shows the asphalt production of refineries from 2019 to 2026, which reflects the production capacity of refineries [57]. - Capacity Utilization Rate: It shows the weekly capacity utilization rate of asphalt from 2023 to 2026, which reflects the production efficiency [60]. - Maintenance Loss Estimation: It presents the estimated maintenance loss trends from 2018 to 2026, which is related to the supply interruption caused by maintenance [63]. - Inventory Analysis: - Exchange Warehouse Receipts: It shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2026, which reflects the inventory situation in the futures market [66]. - Social Inventory and Factory Inventory: It shows the social and factory inventory trends of asphalt from 2022 to 2026, which reflects the overall inventory level [70]. - Factory Inventory - to - Stock Ratio: It shows the factory inventory - to - stock ratio from 2018 to 2026, which reflects the inventory management efficiency of factories [73]. - Import and Export Situation: It shows the export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2026, as well as the import price spread trend of South Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2026, which reflects the international trade situation of asphalt [76][79]. - Demand - side Analysis: - Petroleum Coke Production: It shows the petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2026, which is related to the demand for asphalt in the production process [82]. - Apparent Consumption: It shows the apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 to 2026, which reflects the overall market demand [85]. - Downstream Demand: It includes the trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion year - on - year, and the sales volume trends of asphalt concrete pavers, domestic excavators, and road rollers, as well as the monthly working hours of excavators from 2019 to 2026, which reflects the downstream demand for asphalt [88][93][95]. - Asphalt开工率: It shows the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, and modified asphalt开工率 from 2019 to 2026, as well as the开工率 of downstream products such as shoe - material SBS modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane modified asphalt from 2021 to 2026, which reflects the production enthusiasm of the asphalt industry [97][100][102]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from 2024 to 2026, including production, import, export, downstream demand, and inventory, which helps to analyze the overall supply - demand situation of the asphalt market [107].