大越期货豆粕早报-20260325

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Bean Meal: The M2605 contract is expected to oscillate between 2920 and 2980. The market is currently neutral, with the price influenced by the movement of US soybeans and the short - term easing of the Middle East conflict. The basis is positive, but the increase in inventory and the reduction of long - positions by the main players bring some bearish factors. In the short - term, it is in a moderately strong oscillating pattern [9]. - Soybeans: The A2605 contract is expected to oscillate between 4560 and 4660. The market is neutral, affected by US soybeans and the short - term cooling of the Middle East conflict. Although demand provides some support, factors such as the expected increase in domestic new - season soybean production and spot prices limit the upside potential [11]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Tips - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Recent News - The preliminary agreement on Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of Chinese purchases of US soybeans and US soybean weather remain uncertain. The US market is short - term bullish and oscillating, awaiting further guidance on South American soybean harvest, imported soybean arrivals, and the follow - up of Sino - US trade negotiations [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China continues to decline in the first quarter, while the soybean inventory of oil mills remains at a relatively high level in March. The planting and growth weather of South American soybeans is relatively normal, and bean meal has returned to range - bound oscillations [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig restocking, and the demand for bean meal remains low in March, suppressing the price expectations of bean meal. The influence of US soybeans and the weak demand for bean meal have cross - effects [13]. - The bean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remains at a relatively high level. Due to the possibility of weather speculation in South American soybean production areas and the impact of the preliminary Sino - US trade negotiation agreement, bean meal is short - term oscillating and moderately strong, awaiting further clarification of the Middle East situation, confirmation of South American soybean production, and further guidance on the follow - up of Sino - US trade negotiations [13]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - Bean Meal - Bullish factors: The preliminary Sino - US trade negotiation agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans; the bean meal inventory of domestic oil mills has no pressure; there are still uncertainties in the weather of South American soybean production areas [14]. - Bearish factors: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remains at a relatively high level in March; the harvest of Brazilian soybeans is advancing, and South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest under normal weather conditions [14]. - Main logic: The market focuses on the impact of South American soybean harvest weather and the follow - up of the preliminary Sino - US trade agreement [14]. - Soybeans - Bullish factors: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans supports price expectations [15]. - Bearish factors: The bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased purchases of Brazilian soybeans; the expected increase in domestic new - season soybean production suppresses soybean price expectations [15]. - Main logic: The market focuses on the impact of US soybean weather and the Sino - US trade tariff game [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - Price and Transaction Data - The trading volume and average price of bean meal and rapeseed meal from March 16th to 24th are provided, as well as the price differences between bean meal and rapeseed meal [16]. - The prices of soybean and bean meal futures and spot from March 17th to 24th are presented, including the prices of different contracts and spot prices in different regions [18]. - Inventory Data - The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2016 to 2025 are provided, including data on harvest area, initial inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [32][33]. - The sowing, growth, and harvest progress of soybeans in Argentina, the United States, and Brazil from 2023 to 2026 are presented, including sowing rate, emergence rate, flowering rate, pod - setting rate, leaf - falling rate, and harvest rate [34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43]. - The weekly export inspection volume of US soybeans has increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the arrival volume of imported soybeans has rebounded from a low level and also increased year - on - year [45][47]. - The soybean inventory of oil mills has decreased slightly, and the bean meal inventory has returned to a normal level. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills remains at a relatively high level, and the bean meal production in February decreased slightly year - on - year. The unfulfilled contracts of oil mills have decreased slightly, and the short - term stocking demand is good [50][52][54]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans has declined following the oscillation of US soybeans, and the on - paper profit has fluctuated slightly [56]. - Livestock Data - The year - on - year increase in pig inventory is slight, the sow inventory has decreased year - on - year and slightly month - on - month. The pig price has continued to decline recently, and the average slaughter weight has decreased slightly. The proportion of large pigs in China has decreased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs has fluctuated slightly. The loss of domestic pig - farming profits has expanded, and the pig - to - grain ratio and feed - to - meat ratio have fallen to a low level [58][60][62][64][66]. 5. Position Data - Not mentioned in the provided content