有色早报-20260325

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper is expected to be bullish in the medium - term, with potential for price increases due to limited supply and incremental demand, despite short - term downward pressure from inventory and geopolitical factors [1] - Aluminum is expected to perform relatively strongly in the metal sector due to supply damage and high energy dependence, despite overall pressure on non - ferrous metals [1] - Zinc has weak short - term support under the background of recession expectations, but long - term supply may be tight [4] - Nickel is expected to trade in a range, influenced by bearish fundamentals and bullish supply - side policy interventions [6] - Stainless steel is expected to follow nickel and trade in a range, with a generally weak fundamental situation [8] - Lead is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend, affected by overseas inventory and recycled lead profit [10] - Tin's price is highly affected by global macro - liquidity. It has strong upward potential if liquidity is loose, but large downward space if liquidity tightens [14] - Industrial silicon's price is expected to fluctuate with cost in the short - term and oscillate at the cycle bottom in the long - term due to over - capacity [17] - Lithium carbonate's future price movement depends on factors such as the speed of warehouse receipt clearance and Zimbabwe's export policy, with the short - term market driven by macro factors [19] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - This week, copper prices fluctuated downward, mainly due to macro - geopolitical disturbances. The supply of scrap copper is tight, and the substitution demand for electrolytic copper is increasing, which may lead to further depletion of refined copper inventory. The report maintains a bullish view on copper in the medium - term and suggests paying attention to the support at 93,000 - 96,000 [1] Aluminum - Affected by the Iran crisis, some aluminum production capacity in the Middle East is affected. The external market is stronger than the domestic market, and the overall non - ferrous metals are under pressure. However, aluminum is expected to perform strongly in the metal sector due to supply damage and high energy dependence [1] Zinc - The medium - term supply of zinc ore is expected to be tight. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory has accumulated above 250,000 tons. The short - term support is weak under the background of recession expectations [4] Nickel - The short - term fundamental situation is weak, with domestic inventory accumulation and slight de - stocking in LME. With supply - side policy interventions, nickel prices are expected to trade in a range [6] Stainless Steel - The supply has decreased slightly, the demand is gradually recovering, and the cost has increased. The inventory has decreased slightly this week. It is expected to follow nickel and trade in a range [8] Lead - The primary lead production is resuming, while the recycled lead production is delayed. The terminal demand is weak, and the social inventory has decreased by nearly 10,000 tons this week. The lead price is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [10] Tin - This week, tin prices fluctuated downward, facing great pressure due to liquidity concerns. The supply is gradually recovering, and the demand is relatively stable. The price is highly affected by global macro - liquidity [14] Industrial Silicon - The supply and demand are close to balance, and the price is expected to fluctuate with cost. In the long - term, due to over - capacity, the price is expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [17] Lithium Carbonate - In March, the de - stocking speed has slowed down, and the market is mainly driven by macro factors. The future price movement depends on factors such as the speed of warehouse receipt clearance and Zimbabwe's export policy [19]