大越期货菜粕早报-20260325

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal RM2605 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2320 - 2380. The market is affected by factors such as the trend of soybean meal, technical oscillations, the lifting of restrictions on Canadian agricultural product exports, and the improvement of China - Canada trade relations. Overall, it maintains a volatile pattern after digesting negative factors, and attention should be paid to the development of China - Canada trade relations [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2605 is expected to fluctuate between 2320 and 2380. The market is influenced by multiple factors, with a neutral outlook. The basis indicates a premium, the inventory shows a slight increase week - on - week but a decrease year - on - year, the price is below the 20 - day moving average but upward, the main short positions are decreasing with capital inflow, and the overall market maintains a volatile pattern [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is in a seasonal off - season, with short - term supply expected to be tight and demand suppressing the market. Canadian rapeseed exports to China have returned to normal, and import volumes are gradually increasing. The visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China has improved China - Canada trade relations, and future trade development remains to be seen. Global rapeseed production is increasing, especially in Canada. The ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict has offsetting effects on rapeseed production, and the escalating Middle - East situation provides support for commodities [11]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors: Good demand for rapeseed meal in China after the Spring Festival and no pressure on oil mill rapeseed meal inventory. Bearish factors: Short - term off - season for domestic rapeseed meal demand and the resumption of Canadian rapeseed imports due to improved China - Canada trade relations. The current main logic is the focus on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected arrival of Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Supply and demand balance of domestic rapeseed: From 2016 - 2025, the harvest area, output, and total supply of rapeseed have generally shown an upward trend, while the total consumption has also increased. The ending inventory and inventory - to - consumption ratio have fluctuated, with significant increases in 2022 and 2024 [18]. - Supply and demand balance of domestic rapeseed meal: From 2016 - 2025, the output and total supply of rapeseed meal have generally increased, the feed demand and total demand have also risen, and the ending inventory and inventory - to - consumption ratio have fluctuated, with a significant increase in 2024 [20]. - Transaction data: The trading volume and average price of soybean meal and rapeseed meal have fluctuated from March 16 - 24, 2026, and the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has shown a small - scale increase [13]. - Price data: The futures and spot prices of rapeseed meal have declined from March 17 - 24, 2026, and the basis shows that the spot price is at a premium [15]. - Warehouse receipt data: The rapeseed meal warehouse receipts have gradually decreased from March 16 - 20, 2026, and have remained at 0 since March 23 [16]. 3.5 Position Data - No specific position data analysis provided 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - The rapeseed meal market is affected by multiple factors, including the trend of soybean meal, China - Canada trade relations, and seasonal demand. It is expected to maintain a volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to the development of China - Canada trade relations [9].