永安期货集运早报-20260325

Group 1: Futures Market Data - EC2604 contract had a closing price of 1898.9, a decline of 2.99%, a basis of -342.4, a trading volume of 18908, an open interest of 15267, and a change in open interest of -2429 [2] - EC2605 contract had a closing price of 2178.2, a decline of 8.43%, a basis of -621.7, a trading volume of 1142, an open interest of 1569, and a change in open interest of -245 [2] - EC2606 contract had a closing price of 2439.2, a decline of 9.42%, a basis of -882.7, a trading volume of 11832, an open interest of 13405, and a change in open interest of -907 [2] - EC2607 contract had a closing price of 2567.0, a decline of 7.76%, a basis of -1010.5, a trading volume of 318, an open interest of 913, and a change in open interest of -79 [2] - EC2608 contract had a closing price of 2410.8, a decline of 5.98%, a basis of -854.3, a trading volume of 1175, an open interest of 2828, and a change in open interest of -117 [2] - EC2609 contract had a closing price of 1720.0, a decline of 6.29%, a basis of -163.5, a trading volume not provided, an open interest of 495, and a change in open interest of -7 [2] - EC2610 contract had a closing price of 1573.0, a decline of 4.55%, a basis of -16.5, a trading volume of 2309, an open interest of 7502, and a change in open interest of -15 [2] - EC2612 contract had a closing price of 1774.0, a decline of 2.26%, a basis of -217.5, a trading volume of 70, an open interest of 448, and a change in open interest of 10 [2] Group 2: Spread Data - The spread of EC2604 - 2606 was -540.3, with a day - on - day change of 195.2 and a week - on - week change of -103.6 [2] - The spread of EC2604 - 2605 was -279.3, with a day - on - day change of 142.1 and a week - on - week change of -231.7 [2] - The spread of EC2606 - 2610 was 866.2, with a day - on - day change of -178.7 and a week - on - week change of 49.6 [2] Group 3: Spot Market Data - The spot index (Oriental Line) updated weekly on Mondays, with a value of 1556.49 on March 16, 2026, a rise of 0.71% from the previous period [2] - The SCFI (Oriental Line) updated on Fridays, with a value of 1636 dollars/TEU on March 20, 2026, a rise of 1.11% from the previous period [2] Group 4: Market Analysis - The EC2604 contract is entering the delivery logic, with a contradiction between weak fundamentals and potential fuel cost increases; the EC2610 contract follows the cost - support logic, with high geopolitical risks. On Tuesday, both aspects of news were bearish, and the market is expected to be weak [3] Group 5: European Line Spot Situation - In Week 13, MSK was flat at 2250 dollars, PA was reported at 2400 - 2500 dollars, and some voyages were at 2200 dollars (2000 dollars for large orders). The average spot price converted to the futures price was about 1700 - 1800 points. COSCO announced a price increase for the European Line in April to 5100 dollars, and CMA issued a price - increase letter for April at 3500 dollars [4] - In Week 14, MSK was reported at 2650 dollars (a 400 - dollar increase from the previous week) [4] - On Tuesday of Week 15, after the market closed, the price was reported at 2350 dollars (a 300 - dollar decrease from the previous week) [4] - In early April, ONE was reported at 2500 dollars, EMC at 3160 dollars, and OOCL at 3100 dollars [4] Group 6: Related News - On March 25, US media reported that the US had sent a 15 - point plan to Iran to end the Middle East war. The plan involved Iran's ballistic missile and nuclear programs and maritime shipping lanes. Pakistan's Army Chief Munir had become an important communication bridge between the US and Iran, and Egypt and Turkey encouraged Iran to engage constructively [5]