大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20260325

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is in a state of tight supply - demand balance, with sentiment fluctuations caused by news. The lithium carbonate 2605 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 148,360 - 158,880 [10][13]. - The supply side is expected to increase in the next month, with the predicted production in March 2026 being 106,390 physical tons, a 28.04% increase from February, and the predicted import volume being 26,000 physical tons, a 19.27% increase from February. The demand side is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be depleted [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Fundamentals: Bullish. Last week, lithium carbonate production was 24,186 tons, a 3.24% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. The inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased [7][10]. - Basis: Bearish. On March 24, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 147,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 5,440 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [10]. - Disk: Bearish. The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed below the MA20 [10]. - Main positions: Bearish. The net short position of the main positions decreased [10]. - Likely factors: Bullish factors include the production cut plan of lithium mica manufacturers and the month - on - month decline in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile. Bearish factors are the continuous high supply from the ore/salt lake end with limited decline [11][12]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - Supply - side data: The weekly production of lithium carbonate last week was 24,186 tons, a 3.24% week - on - week increase. The monthly production in February 2026 was 83,090 physical tons, and the predicted production for the next month is 106,390 physical tons, a 28.04% increase. The monthly import volume in February was 21,800 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for the next month is 26,000 physical tons, a 19.27% increase [7][10]. - Demand - side data: The inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 106,718 tons, a 0.89% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 18,425 tons, a 2.25% week - on - week increase [7]. - Inventory data: The smelter inventory was 16,608 tons, a 1.94% week - on - week increase, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory was 46,105 tons, a 1.00% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average; other inventories were 36,160 tons, a 2.32% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average; the total inventory was 98,873 tons, a 0.08% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average [8]. 3.3 Lithium Ore Supply - Price trends: The price trends of lithium ore (6% CIF), Chinese sample lithium spodumene mine production, domestic lithium mica total production, lithium concentrate monthly imports, lithium ore self - sufficiency rate, and weekly port trader and unsold lithium ore inventories are presented in the report [26]. - Supply - demand balance: The supply - demand balance table of lithium ore shows the demand, production, import, export, and balance from February 2025 to February 2026 [28]. 3.4 Lithium Carbonate Supply - Production and capacity: The weekly and monthly production, capacity, and import volume of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, and recycling materials) are presented, along with their trends over the years [31]. - Supply - demand balance: The supply - demand balance table of lithium carbonate shows the demand, production, import, export, and balance from February 2025 to February 2026 [36]. 3.5 Lithium Hydroxide Supply - Production and capacity utilization: The weekly capacity utilization rate, monthly production, and export volume of lithium hydroxide are presented, along with their trends over the years [39]. - Supply - demand balance: The supply - demand balance table of lithium hydroxide shows the demand, production, import, export, and balance from February 2025 to February 2026 [42]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost and Profit - Cost and profit of different materials: The cost and profit of外购 lithium spodumene concentrate,外购 lithium mica concentrate, recycling production of lithium carbonate from different sources, industrial - grade lithium carbonate purification, lithium hydroxide carbonation to lithium carbonate, and other aspects are presented, along with their trends over the years [46][49][52]. 3.7 Inventory - Lithium carbonate inventory: The weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate, including smelter inventory, downstream inventory, and other inventories, is presented, along with their trends over the years [54]. - Lithium hydroxide inventory: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide, including downstream inventory and smelter inventory, is presented, along with its trend over the years [54]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - Power Battery - Price and production: The price trend, monthly cell production, monthly power battery loading volume, power cell monthly shipment volume, and lithium battery export volume of power batteries are presented, along with their trends over the years [58]. 3.9 Demand - Lithium Battery - Energy Storage - Inventory, bidding, and production: The lithium battery cell inventory, energy storage bidding, energy storage battery industry starting rate, energy storage cell shipment monthly trend, and monthly energy storage cell production trend are presented, along with their trends over the years [60]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Precursor - Price, cost, and production: The price, cost, processing fee, capacity utilization rate, capacity, and monthly production of ternary precursors are presented, along with their trends over the years [63]. - Supply - demand balance: The supply - demand balance table of ternary precursors shows the demand, production, import, export, and balance from February 2025 to February 2026 [66]. 3.11 Demand - Ternary Material - Price, cost, and production: The price, cost, profit, processing fee, weekly starting rate, capacity, production, export volume, import volume, and weekly inventory of ternary materials are presented, along with their trends over the years [69][72]. 3.12 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - Price, cost, and production: The price, production cost, cost - profit trend, capacity, monthly starting rate, monthly production, monthly export volume, and weekly inventory of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium are presented, along with their trends over the years [73][76][78]. 3.13 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - Production, sales, and penetration rate: The production, export volume, sales volume, sales penetration rate, retail - wholesale ratio, dealer inventory warning index, and dealer inventory index of new energy vehicles are presented, along with their trends over the years [81][82][85].