工业硅期货早报-20260325

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 78,000 tons, remaining flat week-on-week. The supply schedule is increasing, but it remains at a low level [6]. - Demand: Last week, the demand was 69,000 tons, a 1.47% week-on-week increase. The demand recovery is at a low level. Different downstream sectors have varying inventory and profit situations [6]. - Cost: The production cost of sample oxygenated 553 in Xinjiang is 9,769.7 yuan/ton, remaining flat week-on-week. The cost support has increased during the dry season [6]. - Expectation: Industrial Silicon 2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,515 - 8,695 yuan/ton [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the polysilicon output was 19,000 tons, remaining flat week-on-week. The scheduled output for March is 84,900 tons, a 10.25% increase compared to the previous month [8]. - Demand: The overall demand shows a continuous decline. Different downstream sectors such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components have different production and inventory trends [9][10]. - Cost: The average production cost of N-type polysilicon is 40,260 yuan/ton, with a profit of 240 yuan/ton [9]. - Expectation: Polysilicon 2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 34,705 - 36,755 yuan/ton [10]. Overall Market - Bullish factors include rising cost support and manufacturers' plans to halt or reduce production [12]. - Bearish factors include slow post - holiday demand recovery and strong supply but weak demand in the downstream polysilicon market [13]. - The main logic lies in capacity clearance, cost support, and demand growth [13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Supply: 78,000 tons last week, flat week-on-week [6]. - Demand: 69,000 tons last week, up 1.47% week-on-week. Different downstream sectors have different inventory levels and profit conditions. For example, polysilicon inventory is high, while organic silicon inventory is low [6]. - Cost: Xinjiang sample oxygenated 553 production cost is 9,769.7 yuan/ton, flat week-on-week. Dry season cost support increases [6]. - Basis: On March 24, the spot price of non - oxygenated silicon in East China was 9,150 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 545 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price, indicating a bullish trend [6]. - Inventory: Social inventory is 553,000 tons, up 0.18% week-on-week; sample enterprise inventory is 197,800 tons, up 0.36% week-on-week; major port inventory is 136,000 tons, up 1.49% week-on-week, indicating a bearish trend [6]. - Market: MA20 is upward, and the price of the 05 contract closes above MA20, indicating a bullish trend [6]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, with an increase in short positions, indicating a bearish trend [6]. - Expectation: Supply schedule increases, but remains at a low level; demand recovery is at a low level; cost support increases. Industrial Silicon 2605 is expected to fluctuate between 8,515 - 8,695 yuan/ton [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Output was 19,000 tons last week, flat week-on-week. The scheduled output for March is 84,900 tons, a 10.25% increase compared to the previous month [8]. - Demand: Different downstream sectors have different trends. For example, silicon wafer production is currently in a loss state, but the scheduled output for March is increasing. Battery cell and component production are currently profitable, and the scheduled output for March is also increasing [9]. - Cost: The average production cost of N-type polysilicon is 40,260 yuan/ton, with a profit of 240 yuan/ton [9]. - Basis: On March 24, the price of N-type dense material was 40,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 6,770 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price, indicating a bullish trend [9]. - Inventory: Weekly inventory is 344,000 tons, down 3.64% week-on-week, but still at a historically high level, indicating a bearish trend [9]. - Market: MA20 is downward, and the price of the 05 contract closes below MA20, indicating a bearish trend [10]. - Main Position: The main position is net long, with a decrease in long positions, indicating a bullish trend [10]. - Expectation: Supply schedule continues to increase; overall demand shows a continuous decline; cost support remains stable. Polysilicon 2605 is expected to fluctuate between 34,705 - 36,755 yuan/ton [10]. Market Overview - Industrial Silicon: Different contracts show different price changes. For example, the 01 contract price increased by 1.27% to 9,150 yuan/ton. Social inventory increased, and some sample enterprise production decreased [15]. - Polysilicon: Different contracts also show different price changes. For example, the 05 contract price increased by 0.83% to 35,730 yuan/ton. Weekly total inventory decreased by 3.64% to 344,000 tons [16]. Downstream Market Organic Silicon - DMC: The daily capacity utilization rate remained stable at 68.6%. The weekly output was 45,100 tons, a 5.87% increase compared to the previous week. The monthly inventory was 58,500 tons, a 23.94% increase compared to the previous month [15]. - Downstream Products: The prices of products such as 107 glue, raw rubber, silicone oil, and D4 remained stable [15]. Aluminum Alloy - Price and Supply: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained stable at 24,400 yuan/ton. The import profit improved, with the actual immediate profit increasing from - 2,400 yuan/ton to - 2,117 yuan/ton [15]. - Inventory and Output: The monthly output of primary aluminum - based aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 30.99% to 209,300 tons, and the monthly output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 41.31% to 358,000 tons. The weekly social inventory of aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 7.24% to 53,800 tons [15]. Polysilicon Downstream - Silicon Wafers: The weekly output was 11.78 GW, a 1.66% decrease compared to the previous week. The inventory was 276,500 tons, a 2.46% decrease compared to the previous week. The scheduled output for March is 49.01 GW, a 10.70% increase compared to the previous month [9]. - Battery Cells: The February output was 37.09 GW, a 10.49% decrease compared to the previous month. The weekly inventory of the external sales factory was 6.79 GW, a 16.66% increase compared to the previous week. The scheduled output for March is 46.36 GW, a 24.99% increase compared to the previous month [9]. - Components: The February output was 29.3 GW, a 16.76% decrease compared to the previous month. The expected output for March is 41.39 GW, a 41.26% increase compared to the previous month. The domestic monthly inventory decreased by 51.73% to 24.76 GW, and the European monthly inventory increased by 12.30% to 38.41 GW [9].