合成橡胶产业日报-20260325

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the inventory of production enterprises decreased, and there is still a possibility of further reduction in short - term inventory. The demand side saw a slight increase in the operating rate of domestic tire enterprises last week. Semi - steel tire enterprises are mainly focused on fulfilling foreign trade orders, and with tight domestic sales supply, their capacity utilization remains at a high level. The capacity utilization of all - steel tire enterprises has slightly increased, and the price increase news has led to concentrated shipments and obvious shortages, supporting the overall capacity utilization. At the end of the quarter, the operating rate is expected to remain high, but individual enterprises may adjust production schedules flexibly. Due to the uncertainty of the US - Iran geopolitical conflict, the synthetic rubber futures price is expected to fluctuate sharply in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see, while paying attention to the impact of geopolitical changes on market sentiment [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 17,720 yuan/ton, with a change of 920 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 115,005, with a change of 40,340. The 5 - 6 spread of synthetic rubber is 505 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 23,630 tons, with a change of 60 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical is 17,300 yuan/ton, with a change of 200 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of BR9000 from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 17,250 yuan/ton, with a change of 150 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of BR9000 from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 17,400 yuan/ton, with a change of 200 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is - 920 yuan/ton. The price of Brent crude oil is 104.49 US dollars/barrel, with a change of 4.55 US dollars/barrel; the price of naphtha CFR Japan is 1,088.5 US dollars/ton, with a change of - 101 US dollars/ton. The mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 18,150 yuan/ton, with a change of 150 yuan/ton. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 1,450 US dollars/ton, and the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 2,350 US dollars/ton, with a change of 50 US dollars/ton. The price of WTI crude oil is 92.35 US dollars/barrel [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene is 15.94 million tons, with a change of 0.01 million tons; the capacity utilization rate is 69.71%, with a change of - 2.99%. The port inventory of butadiene is 27,600 tons, with a change of - 3,400 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 54.29%, with a change of - 0.52%. The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 14.99 million tons, with a change of 0.63 million tons; the capacity utilization rate is 65.58%, with a change of - 14.4%. The production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 204 yuan/ton, with a change of - 2,500 yuan/ton. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 42,600 tons, with a change of - 1,800 tons; the manufacturer's inventory is 34,000 tons, with a change of - 1,350 tons; the trader's inventory is 8,610 tons, with a change of - 470 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 78.25%, with a change of 0.54%; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 70.72%, with a change of 0.5%. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.71 million pieces, with a change of - 150,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 59.68 million pieces, with a change of 1.29 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 41.09 days, with a change of - 2.82 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 44.59 days, with a change of 0.75 days [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of March 19, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 79.32%, a month - on - month increase of 0.59 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.05 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.21%, a month - on - month increase of 0.41 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.31 percentage points. In February 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a nearly 30% decrease from January 2025 and an about 8% decrease from 81,400 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. From January to February 2026, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. As of March 18, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 42,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.18 million tons and a decrease of 4.10% [2]