瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20260325

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory at Qingdao Port has started to accumulate again, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing an increase. It is expected that the general trade warehouse in Qingdao may continue to experience a slight inventory build - up in the short term [2]. - Last week, the operating rates of domestic tire enterprises increased slightly. The semi - steel tire enterprises are mainly focused on fulfilling foreign trade orders, and with tight domestic sales supply, their capacity utilization rates remain at a high level. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire enterprises has also slightly increased, and the price increase news has led to concentrated shipments and obvious shortages, supporting the overall capacity utilization rate. Entering the end of the quarter, the operating rates of some enterprises are expected to remain high, but there may be flexible production adjustments by individual enterprises [2]. - The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16300 - 16850 in the short term, and the nr2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13300 - 14000 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 16430 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 205 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 13565 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 255 yuan/ton [2]. - The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 45 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 35 yuan/ton; the 5 - 6 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 70 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 15 yuan/ton [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 2865 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton [2]. - The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 107227 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 4547 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 55398 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 2164 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 30266 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 3929 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 10117 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 323 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 125410 tons, with no change; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 44554 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 605 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 16300 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 200 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 16600 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1990 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 35 US dollars/ton; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1985 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 35 US dollars/ton [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15380 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 150 yuan/ton; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 15330 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 150 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 18700 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 500 yuan/ton; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 18500 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 130 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 845 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 70 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13651 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 153 yuan/ton; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 86 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 102 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheets) is 75.45 Thai baht/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 1.55 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) is 71.05 Thai baht/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 1.05 Thai baht/kg [2]. - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 76 Thai baht/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.5 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.85 Thai baht/kg [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 13.6 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is - 32 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 19 US dollars/ton [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically - classified natural rubber is 19.93 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 3.05 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 39.63 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 9.41 million tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires is 70.72%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.5 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires is 78.25%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.54 percentage points [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 41.09 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.82 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 44.59 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.75 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.71 million pieces, with a month - on - month decrease of 150,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 59.68 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 1.29 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 19.4%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.03 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 23.13%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.07 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 32.17%, with a week - on - week increase of 3.8 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 32.18%, with a week - on - week increase of 3.81 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In February 2026, the domestic heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a nearly 30% decrease from January 2025 and an about 8% decrease from the 81,400 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. From January to February 2026, the cumulative sales of the domestic heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. The decline in the heavy - truck industry in February 2026 was mainly due to seasonal fluctuations during the Spring Festival [2]. - As of March 22, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 685,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8,000 tons, an increase of 1.18%. The bonded area inventory was 122,100 tons, an increase of 0.66%; the general trade inventory was 563,500 tons, an increase of 1.29%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 1.41 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.50 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.62 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.41 percentage points [2]. - As of March 19, the capacity utilization rate of the sample enterprises of Chinese semi - steel tires was 79.32%, a week - on - week increase of 0.59 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.05 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of the sample enterprises of all - steel tires was 72.21%, a week - on - week increase of 0.41 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.31 percentage points [2].