瑞达期货尿素产业日报-20260325

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, the production of urea is expected to continue to decrease due to short - term enterprise failures and planned device changes [2] - Agricultural demand for urea is gradually weakening, and the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices has cooled the market trading sentiment [2] - The开工 rate of compound fertilizer plants has increased, and the industrial consumption of urea has risen. The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers is expected to maintain a steady and slightly increasing trend [2] - The inventory of domestic urea enterprises continues to decline, and industrial demand is increasing. Most urea factories still have tight supplies. In the last stage of releasing reserves next week, local factories' active release of reserves may push the inventory of urea enterprises to decline [2] - The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1830 - 1900 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Zhengzhou urea is 1863 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan; the 5 - 9 spread is - 58 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 [2] - The position volume of the main contract of Zhengzhou urea is 192,064 hands, a decrease of 11,978; the net position of the top 20 is - 35,308 [2] - The number of exchange warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou urea is 8,785, an increase of 73 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the prices in Hebei, Henan, and Anhui remain unchanged at 1870, 1860, and 1870 yuan/ton respectively; the prices in Jiangsu and Shandong increase by 10 yuan/ton to 1880 and 1890 yuan/ton respectively [2] - The basis of the main contract of Zhengzhou urea is 27 yuan/ton, an increase of 11 [2] - FOB prices in the Baltic and China's main ports remain unchanged at 595 and 712.5 US dollars/ton respectively [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - Port inventory is 16.7 million tons, a decrease of 2.2 million tons; enterprise inventory is 80.89 million tons, a decrease of 14.87 million tons [2] - The urea enterprise 开工 rate is 92.19%, a decrease of 1.1%; the daily urea output is 217,100 tons, a decrease of 2,600 tons [2] - Urea export volume is 28 million tons, a decrease of 32 million tons; the monthly output of urea is 6,289,610 tons, an increase of 271,170 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The 开工 rate of compound fertilizers is 49.97%, an increase of 4.41%; the 开工 rate of melamine is 59.31%, an increase of 5.96% [2] - The weekly profit of compound fertilizers in China is 131 yuan/ton, a decrease of 59 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is 1,012 yuan/ton, an increase of 726 yuan/ton [2] - The monthly output of compound fertilizers is 517.99 million tons, an increase of 18.45 million tons; the weekly output of melamine is 32,600 tons, an increase of 4,400 tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of March 25, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 70.05 million tons, a decrease of 10.84 million tons from the previous period, a year - on - year decrease of 13.40% [2] - As of March 19, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports is 16.7 million tons, a decrease of 2.2 million tons from the previous period, a decline of 11.64% [2] - As of March 19, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises is 1.5194 billion tons, a decrease of 18.2 million tons from the previous period, a year - on - year decrease of 1.18%; the capacity utilization rate is 92.19%, a decrease of 1.10% from the previous period [2]