瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20260325

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views Corn - The expected planting area of US corn in 2026 is 94.4 million acres, lower than 98.8 million acres in 2025 but slightly higher than the USDA's February forecast. The EPA is in the final stage of issuing biofuel blending rules and will make a decision by the end of the month. The ongoing US - Iran conflict boosts international oil prices and freight rates, which is positive for the international corn market and also benefits the domestic market. In the domestic market, as the corn purchase price in the Northeast region rises, the willingness of grain - holding entities to sell increases. High - temperature environments increase the risk of mildew, and the supply of high - moisture grain is rising. Drying towers are cautious in purchasing, and the inventory of processing enterprises has slightly increased, putting pressure on price increases. The trading volume and price of government - supported wheat auctions have declined this week, enhancing the feed substitution effect of wheat. Feed enterprises have increased wheat procurement, diverting the demand for feed corn. There are rumors of a rice auction in April, which may have a negative impact on corn prices. Corn futures prices are oscillating at a high level, and short - term trading is recommended [2]. Corn Starch - The supply of raw - material corn has increased recently, leading to a rise in the operating rate of corn starch enterprises. The industry's operating rate has increased month - on - month, and the supply - side pressure has increased. The industry's inventory pressure has also slightly rebounded. As of March 25, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.217 million tons, an increase of 14,000 tons from last week, with a weekly increase of 1.16% and a monthly increase of 1.59%, and a year - on - year decrease of 10.71%. However, supported by the favorable price of raw - material corn, the starch spot market performs well. Recently, the starch market has maintained a relatively strong oscillation [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract): 2,376 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan; corn monthly spread (5 - 9): - 2 yuan/ton; corn starch monthly spread (5 - 7): - 9 yuan/ton. Corn futures closing price (active contract): 2,763 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan. Corn futures trading volume (active contract): 1,232,743 hands, down 93,096 hands; corn starch futures trading volume (active contract): 265,273 hands, down 17,196 hands. Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for corn: - 198,288 hands; for corn starch: - 21,172 hands, up 7,897 hands. Registered warehouse receipts for yellow corn: 67,645 hands, down 1,658 hands; for corn starch: 4,725 hands, unchanged. The spread between the main contracts of CS - C: 381 yuan/ton [2]. Outer - market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract): 462.25 cents/bushel, up 1.75 cents; CBOT corn total positions (weekly): 1,773,499 contracts, up 50,191 contracts; non - commercial net long positions of CBOT corn (weekly): 312,342 contracts, up 54,561 contracts [2]. Spot Market - Average spot price of corn: 2,452.65 yuan/ton, down 0.19 yuan; ex - factory price of corn starch in Changchun: 2,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; FOB price of corn in Jinzhou Port: 2,400 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; ex - factory price of corn starch in Weifang: 3,060 yuan/ton, unchanged; CIF price of imported corn: 2,146.83 yuan/ton, up 9.7 yuan; international freight of imported corn: 66 US dollars/ton, up 1 US dollar. The basis of the main corn contract: 76.65 yuan/ton, up 6.81 yuan; the basis of the main corn starch contract: 137 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan; the spread between Shandong starch and corn (weekly): 496 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan [2]. Substitute Spot Prices - Average spot price of wheat: 2,593.06 yuan/ton, down 1.33 yuan; spread between cassava starch and corn starch (weekly): 835 yuan/ton, up 98 yuan; spread between corn starch and 30 - powder: - 12 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - Predicted planting area of corn in the US: 36.93 million hectares, up 0.49 million hectares; predicted yield: 432.34 million tons. Predicted planting area in Brazil: 22.6 million hectares, unchanged; predicted yield: 131 million tons. Predicted planting area in Argentina: 7.5 million hectares, unchanged; predicted yield: 53 million tons. Predicted planting area in China: 44.96 million hectares, up 0.66 million hectares; predicted yield: 301.24 million tons. Predicted yield in Ukraine: 29 million tons, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - Corn inventory in southern ports (weekly): 44.7 million tons, down 249,000 tons; deep - processing corn inventory (weekly): 3.769 million tons, up 392,000 tons. Corn inventory in northern ports (weekly): 2.47 million tons, up 280,000 tons; weekly inventory of starch enterprises (weekly): 1.217 million tons, up 14,000 tons. Import volume of corn (monthly): 800,000 tons, up 240,000 tons; export volume of corn starch (monthly): 16,740 tons, down 200 tons. Feed production (monthly): 3.0086 million tons, up 307,000 tons; corn starch processing profit in Shandong (daily): 14 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Hebei: 117 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; in Jilin: 40 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Downstream Situation - Deep - processing corn consumption (weekly): 1.3414 million tons, up 72,800 tons; alcohol enterprise operating rate (weekly): 58.76%, up 3.15%; starch enterprise operating rate (weekly): 60.98%, up 2.18% [2]. Options Market - 20 - day historical volatility of corn (daily): 9.11%, up 1.67%; 60 - day historical volatility of corn (daily): 7.7%, up 0.46%. Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn (daily): 16.9%, up 4.2%; implied volatility of at - the - money put options for corn (daily): 16.91%, up 4.21% [2]. Key Points to Watch - Monitor the weekly corn consumption data from mysteel and the operating rate and inventory of starch enterprises on Thursday and Friday [3]