瑞达期货PVC产业日报-20260325

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestic supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the previous high inventory is expected to be digested [3]. - The start - up rate of the downstream is expected to rise to a relatively high level throughout the year as it gradually enters the traditional peak season [3]. - Overseas ethylene - based plants have shut down due to raw material shortages, and the improvement of domestic exports depends on the duration of the Middle East geopolitical conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz [3]. - In the short term, V2605 is expected to fluctuate widely due to the impact of Middle East geopolitical news [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 5703 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the trading volume is 1,758,230 lots, down 219,507 lots; the open interest is 716,758 lots, down 36,471 lots [3]. - The long position of the top 20 futures holders is 1,019,635 lots, down 18,245 lots; the short position is 1,006,427 lots, down 34,906 lots; the net long position is 13,208 lots, up 16,661 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of ethylene - based PVC in East China is 7300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China is 5829.26 yuan/ton, down 192.22 yuan [3]. - The price of ethylene - based PVC in South China is 6725 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC in South China is 5828.75 yuan/ton, down 312.5 yuan [3]. - The CIF price of PVC in China and Southeast Asia is 1050 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price of PVC in Northwest Europe is 1050 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. - The basis of PVC is - 203 yuan/ton, down 210 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average prices of calcium carbide in Central China, North China, and Northwest China are 2900 yuan/ton, 2921.67 yuan/ton, and 2773 yuan/ton respectively, with the price in Northwest China up 40 yuan/ton [3]. - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 49.5 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The CFR mid - prices of VCM in the Far East and Southeast Asia are 916 US dollars/ton and 969 US dollars/ton respectively, up 129 US dollars/ton and 181 US dollars/ton [3]. - The CFR mid - prices of EDC in the Far East and Southeast Asia are 351 US dollars/ton and 350 US dollars/ton respectively, up 51 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly start - up rate of PVC is 80.12%, down 1.23%; the start - up rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 84.71%, up 1.78%; the start - up rate of ethylene - based PVC is 69.24%, down 8.36% [3]. - The total social inventory of PVC is 610,500 tons, down 21,300 tons; the total social inventory in East China is 567,300 tons, down 13,500 tons; the total social inventory in South China is 43,200 tons, down 7800 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index is 91.45, down 0.45; the cumulative value of newly started housing area is 587,699,600 square meters, up 53,132,600 square meters [3]. - The cumulative value of real estate construction area is 6,598,902,900 square meters, up 38,240,900 square meters; the cumulative value of real estate development investment is 448.9598 billion yuan, up 287.141 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 39.74%, down 0.53%; the 40 - day historical volatility of PVC is 32.31%, down 0.04% [3]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options of PVC is 50.78%, down 3.75%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options of PVC is 50.77%, down 3.69% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - From March 13th to 19th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 80.12%, down 1.23% from the previous period [3]. - From March 14th to 20th, the downstream start - up rate of PVC increased by 2.33% to 41.66%, among which the start - up rate of pipes increased by 1.2% to 39.2%, and the start - up rate of profiles increased by 4.35% to 34.35% [3]. - As of March 19th, the social inventory of PVC was 1.3713 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.55% and a year - on - year increase of 64.47% [3]. - From March 13th to 19th, the average cost of calcium carbide - based PVC increased by 4.68% to 5391 yuan/ton, and the cost of ethylene - based PVC increased by 13.06% to 7294 yuan/ton; the profit of calcium carbide - based PVC decreased by 73 yuan/ton to 193 yuan/ton, and the profit of ethylene - based PVC decreased by 198 yuan/ton to - 433 yuan/ton [3].