瑞达期货塑料产业日报-20260325

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - PE production decreased by 2.81% to 664,000 tons, and capacity utilization decreased by 2.32 percentage points to 80.07%. Downstream operating rate increased by 3.8% week - on - week, with the agricultural film operating rate up 8.6% and the packaging film operating rate up 2.2%. Production enterprise inventory decreased by 1.23% to 568,300 tons, and social inventory decreased by 1.98% to 607,100 tons. PE maintenance plans increased, and industry supply pressure is expected to continue to ease. The downstream is in the "Golden March" peak season, and orders for mulch and packaging films are seasonally increasing, driving demand recovery. The short - term supply of raw materials such as ethylene in Asia is difficult to recover, giving some support to LLDPE. L2605 is expected to fluctuate with oil prices, and attention should be paid to geopolitical news from the Middle East [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main polyethylene futures contract was 8,715 yuan/ton, down 203 yuan. The 1 - month contract was 8,273 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan; the 5 - month contract was 8,715 yuan/ton, down 203 yuan; the 9 - month contract was 8,568 yuan/ton, down 168 yuan. Trading volume was 1,057,929 lots, down 75,737 lots; open interest was 319,820 lots, up 4,893 lots. The 1 - 5 spread was - 442, up 33; the 5 - 9 spread was 147, down 35; the 9 - 1 spread was 295, up 2. The long positions of the top 20 futures holders were 454,065 lots, down 989 lots; the short positions were 459,362 lots, down 7,665 lots; the net long positions were - 5,297 lots, up 6,676 lots [2] Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 8,443.48 yuan/ton, down 446.96 yuan; in East China, it was 8,784.42 yuan/ton, down 352.79 yuan. The basis was - 271.52, down 243.95 [2] Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore was 127.51 US dollars/barrel, down 11.24 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 1,088.5 US dollars/ton, down 101 US dollars. The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 1,426 US dollars/ton, up 75 US dollars; in Northeast Asia, it was 1,451 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The national PE petrochemical operating rate was 80.07%, down 2.32 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene (PE) packaging film was 45.56%, up 2.19 percentage points; for pipes, it was 23.33%, up 5.33 percentage points; for agricultural film, it was 35.44%, up 8.63 percentage points [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 41.68%, up 0.24 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 33.5%, up 0.17 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and call options of polyethylene was 52.15%, down 6.51 percentage points [2] Industry News - From March 13th to 19th, China's polyethylene production was 664,000 tons, a decrease of 2.81% from the previous week; the capacity utilization rate of polyethylene production enterprises was 80.07%, a decrease of 2.32 percentage points from the previous period. The average operating rate of China's polyethylene downstream products increased by 3.8% from the previous period, with the overall operating rate of agricultural film up 8.6% and the PE packaging film operating rate up 2.2%. As of March 18th, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 568,300 tons, a decrease of 1.23% week - on - week; as of March 20th, the social inventory of polyethylene was 607,100 tons, a decrease of 1.98% week - on - week. From March 13th to 19th, the cost of oil - based LLDPE increased by 9.35% to 10,177 yuan/ton, and the oil - based profit decreased by 519 yuan/ton to - 1,848 yuan/ton; the cost of coal - based LLDPE decreased by 0.72% to 6,542 yuan/ton, and the coal - based profit increased by 383 yuan/ton to 1,829 yuan/ton [2]