2026-03-25 09:40Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for Henderson Land Development Company Limited (恒基地产) [1] Core Insights - The report indicates that Henderson Land has a historical tendency to maintain stable dividends rather than a fixed payout ratio since 2018, leading to expectations that the dividend per share will remain unchanged in the coming years [1] - It is anticipated that the company's stock price may come under pressure following a dividend cut, suggesting that investors may find opportunities to buy at lower prices [1] - The forecasted compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the company's earnings from 2025 to 2028 is projected to be 19% [1] - The target price for the stock has been adjusted down from HKD 39 to HKD 35 due to high uncertainty regarding the current interest rate outlook [1] Financial Projections - A 38% year-on-year decline in core earnings for 2025 is expected, which the market is unlikely to find surprising [1] - The 30% reduction in dividends is seen as a measure that alleviates some uncertainties [1] - Management aims to stabilize dividends by 2026, with earnings expected to rebound by 28% in the same year, particularly with profit margins from development properties in Hong Kong anticipated to recover to mid-teens (approximately 13% to 17%) [1] - The report suggests that these targets should be achievable as long as the macroeconomic environment does not significantly deteriorate [1]