石药集团：25年业绩回顾：基本面出清，管线催化丰富；看好长效多肽平台潜力-20260326

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for CSPC Pharmaceutical Group with a target price of HKD 13.19, while the current price is HKD 8.49 [2]. Core Insights - CSPC achieved a revenue of RMB 26.0 billion in FY25, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 10%. Finished drug revenue was RMB 20.6 billion (down 13%), API revenue was RMB 3.7 billion (up 2%), and functional food & other businesses contributed RMB 1.8 billion (up 4%). The gross margin was 63.1%, down 6.9 percentage points [14][15]. - The company’s business development strategy is entering a monetization phase, with expectations for continuous business development deals to enhance attributable net profit [16]. - CSPC's long-acting peptide platform, in collaboration with AstraZeneca, is positioned to target the global metabolic market, with the potential to become a core product in AstraZeneca's future weight-loss portfolio [22]. Financial Performance - In FY25, CSPC's net profit was RMB 3.9 billion, a decrease of 10% year-on-year. R&D expenses increased by 12% to RMB 5.8 billion, while selling expenses decreased by 25% to RMB 6.5 billion [14][15]. - For Q4 2025, CSPC recorded revenue of RMB 6.1 billion, with finished drug revenue reaching RMB 5.1 billion, and an attributable net profit of RMB 370 million, down 33% year-on-year [15][16]. - The revenue forecast for 2026 and 2027 has been adjusted to RMB 28.8 billion and RMB 30.6 billion, respectively, with attributable net profit forecasts of RMB 4.8 billion and RMB 5.3 billion [23]. Pipeline and Catalysts - Multiple assets are expected to deliver key data readouts, including SYS6010 for non-small cell lung cancer and SYS6043 for nasopharyngeal carcinoma, with significant clinical data anticipated within the year [17][18]. - The long-acting peptide platform, particularly SYH2069, is designed to provide deeper and more durable weight-loss effects and has received IND approval from both China's NMPA and the U.S. FDA [20][21].