集运早报-20260326

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The EC2604 contract is expected to oscillate today due to the contradiction between its weak fundamentals and potential increase in fuel costs; the EC2610 contract follows the cost - support logic, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term as it is far from now and there is a peak season in between. For other far - month contracts, the key lies in the blockade time of the Strait of Hormuz. Given the complex transmission path of the geopolitical event to the European line and high uncertainty, it is advised to avoid the high - volatility risk of far - month unilateral trading and look for arbitrage opportunities from the monthly spread valuation [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Contract Information - For EC2604, the closing price was 1803.0, with a decline of 5.05%, a basis of - 109.7, a trading volume of 18169, an open interest of 12060, and an open interest change of - 3207 [2] - For EC2605, the closing price was 2086.0, with a decline of 4.23%, a basis of - 392.7, a trading volume of 1146, an open interest of 1414, and an open interest change of - 155 [2] - For EC2606, the closing price was 2364.1, with a decline of 3.08%, a basis of - 670.8, a trading volume of 12555, an open interest of 12845, and an open interest change of FF60 [2] - For EC2607, the closing price was 2475.2, with a decline of 3.58%, a basis of - 781.9, a trading volume of 421, an open interest of 891, and an open interest change of - 22 [2] - For EC2608, the closing price was 2354.2, with a decline of 2.35%, a basis of - 660.9, a trading volume of 1120, an open interest of 2720, and an open interest change of - 108 [2] - For EC2609, the closing price was 1658.1, with a decline of 3.60%, a basis of 35.2, a trading volume of 84, and an open interest of 498 [2] - For EC2610, the closing price was 1567.9, with a decline of 0.32%, a basis of 125.4, a trading volume of 2222, an open interest of 7330, and an open interest change of - 172 [2] - For EC2612, the closing price was 1716.7, with a decline of 3.23%, a basis of - 23.4, a trading volume of 143, and an open interest of 503 [2] Month - spread Information - The EC2604 - 2606 month - spread was - 561.1, with a day - on - day change of - 20.8 and a week - on - week change of - 89.9 [2] - The EC2604 - 2605 month - spread was - 283, with a day - on - day change of - 3.7 and a week - on - week change of - 253.0 [2] - The EC2606 - 2610 month - spread was 796.2, with a day - on - day change of - 70.0 and a week - on - week change of - 28.4 [2] Spot Index Information - The TERNA spot index on 2026/3/23 was 1693.26 points, with a 8.79% increase from the previous period [2] - The SCFI (European line) on 2026/3/20 was 1636 dollars/TEU, with a 1.11% increase from the previous period [2] European Line Spot Situation - In Week 13, MSK opened flat at 2250 dollars, PA reported 2400 - 2500 dollars, and some voyages were 2200 dollars (2000 dollars for large orders), and the average spot price converted to the futures price was about 1700 - 1800 points [4] - In the first half of April, YML and ONE reported 2500 dollars, EMC reported 3160 dollars, and OOCL reported 3100 dollars [4] - Maersk reported 2650 dollars in Week 14 (a 400 - dollar increase from the previous week) and 2350 dollars in Week 15 (a 300 - dollar decrease from the previous week) [4] Related News - On March 25, COSCO Shipping resumed booking for Gulf countries, but ships will not pass through the Strait of Hormuz for now. Instead, they will transport containers to ports on the east side of the strait and then transfer them by land [5] - On March 25, Iran put forward five conditions for a cease - fire [5] - On March 25, US media reported that the White House was planning a negotiation with Iran over the weekend, and US Vice - President Vance might attend [5] - On March 26, White House Press Secretary Levitt reiterated that the time frame for Iran's actions was 4 to 6 weeks, and Iran was willing to have a dialogue while Trump was ready to participate [5]