LPG早报-20260326

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The LPG market is in a contradiction between weak reality and strong expectations. Currently, the basis is weak (-1000), domestic refinery gas is sufficient in the short term, and there are intentions to deliver warehouse receipts from some warehouses. The 4 - 5 month spread on the domestic market is in a delivery game and is expected to fluctuate greatly. Looking ahead, a shortage of LPG in China in the second half of April is inevitable. If the Strait is interrupted for a longer time, the international market will face a more serious shortage, and the civil LPG demand gap will be difficult to make up, so the overseas market will remain strong [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Changes - From March 19 - 25, 2026, prices of LPG in South China, East China, and Shandong showed an upward trend. For example, South China LPG increased from 6215 on March 19 to 7210 on March 25. Paper import profit increased from -3111 on March 19 to 1 on March 25, and the main basis changed from -392 to 120 [1]. - On March 25, the PG2605 contract closed at 6550 (-286) at 3 pm, with a 5 - 6 month spread of 242 (+47), and the number of warehouse receipts was 3100 (+0). The night - session closed at 6565 (-29), and the 5 - 6 month spread was 225 (-17) [1]. - Shandong civil LPG price was 6470 (-80), Shandong ether - post carbon four was 6470 (+0), Shandong propane was 6870 (-80), and Longkou Port propane was 7500 (+0) [1]. 3.2 Weekly Data Changes - Due to the escalation of the Middle East situation, attacks on gas fields in Iran and Qatar, and a compressor leak at Targe, the PG futures price rose significantly. The basis was -1057 (-736), and the 4 - 5 month spread was 64 (-68) [1]. - The number of warehouse receipts was 3100 (+8), with Wanhua increasing by 1300, Jingbo decreasing by 428, and Yunda decreasing by 880. The cheapest deliverable product was Shandong ether - post at 5950 (+520) [1]. - The FEI month spread was 112 US dollars (+28), the oil - gas price ratio decreased, and the domestic and international PG - FEI c1 dropped to 35 (-15.5) [1]. - The on - shore discount of South China CP propane was 501 (+108), and the FOB discounts of AFEI, US Gulf, and Middle East propane were 50 (-54.75), 273.5 (+72.9), and 0 (+0) respectively. The FEI - MOPJ spread was -76 (+52) [1]. - The spot profit of domestic PDH - made propylene weakened slightly, and the paper profit of PDH - made PP in East and South China decreased. The port inventory ratio was 35.84% (+0.79 pct), the enterprise storage capacity utilization was 26.05% (+1.11 pct), and the PDH operating rate was 65.63% (+2.4 pct) [1].