大越期货沪镍、不锈钢早报-20260326

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - 沪镍: The external market showed a pattern of rising and then falling, continuing to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average. Supply increased in March, domestic inventory continued to accumulate, and the market supply was sufficient. The price of nickel ore continued to rise, and the RKAB policy in Indonesia continued to have an impact. The price of nickel - iron was weakly stable, and the cost line was firm. The inventory of stainless steel continued to decline slightly, and the demand was weak. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles met expectations, but the decline in the off - season was relatively large. The overall situation was bearish. The basis was bullish, the inventory was bearish, the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average with the 20 - day moving average pointing downwards (bearish), and the net long position of the main contract decreased (bullish). The conclusion was that the Shanghai nickel 2605 contract would fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [2]. - 不锈钢: The spot price of stainless steel remained flat. In the short term, the price of nickel ore was firm, the demand in Indonesia was strong, the price of nickel - iron was weakly stable, and the cost line had strong support. The inventory of stainless steel decreased slightly, and the demand was weak. The overall situation was neutral. The basis was bullish, the inventory was neutral, the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average with the 20 - day moving average pointing upwards (bullish). The conclusion was that the stainless steel 2605 contract would have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - Futures: On March 25, the Shanghai nickel main contract was 136,130, up 2,650 from March 24; the LME nickel was 17,345, up 365; the stainless steel main contract was 14,490, up 200. The nickel index was 136,050, up 2,200, and the cold - rolled index was 13,990, up 191 [10]. - Spot: On March 25, SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 137,800, up 1,650; 1 Jinchuan nickel was 141,000, up 1,700; 1 imported nickel was 134,700, up 1,800; nickel beans were 137,300, up 1,800. Cold - rolled 304*2B stainless steel prices in Wuxi, Foshan, Hangzhou, and Shanghai remained unchanged [10]. Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of March 20, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 63,661 tons, with the futures inventory at 56,690 tons, a decrease of 20 tons and an increase of 228 tons respectively. On March 25, LME nickel inventory was 282,456, a decrease of 432; nickel warehouse receipts were 57,605, a decrease of 401; the total inventory was 340,061, a decrease of 833 [12][13]. Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - On March 20, the inventory in Wuxi was 598,700 tons, in Foshan was 380,600 tons, and the national inventory was 1,127,400 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons compared with the previous period. The inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 693,700 tons, a decrease of 13,400 tons. On March 25, the stainless steel warehouse receipts were 43,537, a decrease of 62 [17][18]. Nickel Ore and Nickel - Iron Prices - On March 25, the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 80 US dollars per wet ton, unchanged; the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni0.9%) was 35 US dollars per wet ton, up 0.5. The sea freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port remained unchanged. The price of high - nickel wet ton was 1,085.37 yuan per nickel point, down 0.84; the price of low - nickel wet ton was 3,650 yuan per ton, unchanged [21]. Stainless Steel Production Cost - The traditional production cost was 14,131, the scrap - steel production cost was 14,078, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost was 17,841 [23]. Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The converted import price was 135,411 yuan per ton [25].