大越期货纯碱早报-20260326

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of soda ash is showing a downward trend with enterprise maintenance, but the overall supply remains abundant. The daily melting volume of downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass continues to decline, and the inventory of soda ash factories is at the highest level in the same period in history. The basis indicates that the futures price is at a premium to the spot price. The inventory is above the 5 - year average, and the net short position of the main contract is increasing. Considering the cost - side boost, it is expected that soda ash will mainly fluctuate in the short term [2]. - The main logic is that the supply of soda ash is at a high level, the terminal demand is declining, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of soda ash futures increased from 1240 yuan/ton to 1244 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.32%. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe, Hebei increased from 1215 yuan/ton to 1220 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.41%. The main basis changed from - 25 yuan/ton to - 24 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.00% [5]. 3.2 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe market in Hebei is 1220 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [11]. 3.3 Soda Ash Production Profit - The profit of heavy soda ash produced by the ammonia - soda process in North China is - 25.30 yuan/ton, and the profit of the co - production process in East China is 227.5 yuan/ton [14]. 3.4 Soda Ash Operating Rate and Production - The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 87%. The weekly production of soda ash is 81.81 tons, of which the production of heavy soda ash is 43.40 tons, at a historical high [17][19]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly production - sales rate of soda ash is 101.92%. The daily melting volume of national float glass is 14.58 tons, and the operating rate is 70.41% [22][25]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of soda ash in factories nationwide is 185.38 tons, a decrease of 4.03% compared with the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [30]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [31]. 3.8 Influencing Factors - Likely Positive Factors: The cold - repair of downstream float glass is less, and the production remains stable. The conflict between the United States and Iran boosts the bullish sentiment in the market [4]. - Likely Negative Factors: The operating load of the second - phase production line of Yuangxing Energy has increased, and there is no expectation of new maintenance, so the production is expected to remain at a high level. The production of photovoltaic glass, the downstream of heavy soda ash, has decreased, and the demand for soda ash has weakened [4].