大越期货燃料油早报-20260326

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure has further weakened due to weak downstream marine fuel demand and a decline in the spot premium of 0.5% sulfur marine fuel oil. The spot price of Singapore 380CST high - sulfur fuel oil has decreased. The market supply is currently sufficient, but the Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market may face supply shortages from April to mid - May, after which European arbitrage cargoes will increase regional inventories. High - sulfur fuel oil is more abundant than low - sulfur fuel oil. Short - term geopolitical concerns support prices, and fuel oil will operate in a high - level oscillation. FU2605 will operate in the range of 4250 - 4450, and LU2605 will operate in the range of 4900 - 5050 [3] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The current situation and future trends of the fuel oil market are analyzed, including market structure, price, inventory, and expected price ranges for different contracts [3] 2. Multi - Short Focus - Likely Positive Factors: Middle East unrest and poor strait passage [4] - Likely Negative Factors: The reappearance of TACO in the Trump administration and upstream crude oil being under pressure [4] - Market Drivers: Supply is affected by geopolitical risks, and demand is neutral [4] 3. Fundamental Data - Fundamentals: Weak downstream demand and a decline in the spot premium of low - sulfur fuel oil have weakened the Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure. The spot price of Singapore 380CST high - sulfur fuel oil has dropped to $34.67 per ton, lower than $45.50 per ton on March 23 [3] - Basis: The basis of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is $59 per ton, and that of low - sulfur fuel oil is $427 per ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [3] - Inventory: Singapore's fuel oil inventory in the week of March 18 was 24.869 million barrels, an increase of 0.37 million barrels [3] - Disk: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward [3] - Main Positions: The main position of high - sulfur fuel oil is short, with short positions decreasing; the main position of low - sulfur fuel oil is long, with long positions decreasing [3] - Expected Price Range: FU2605 will operate in the range of 4250 - 4450, and LU2605 will operate in the range of 4900 - 5050 [3] 4. Spread Data - No information provided 5. Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory data from January 7, 2026, to March 18, 2026, are presented, showing changes in inventory and the amount of increase or decrease [7]