大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20260326

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate 2605 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 154,160 - 164,600. The overall situation is a tight supply - demand balance with sentiment fluctuations triggered by news. The supply side is expected to increase in the next month, while the demand side is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be depleted. The cost - side 6% concentrate CIF price has a daily - on - daily increase, lower than the historical average, and the demand - led situation has weakened [10][11][14] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Fundamentals: Bullish. Last week, lithium carbonate production was 24,186 tons, a 3.24% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. The inventory of phosphoric acid iron - lithium sample enterprises was 106,718 tons, a 0.89% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 18,425 tons, a 2.25% week - on - week increase [7] - Basis: Bearish. On March 25, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 152,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 6,620 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [11] - Disk: Neutral. The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20 [11] - Main Position: Bearish. The main position is net short, and short positions increased [11] - Expectation: On the supply side, the lithium carbonate production in February 2026 was 83,090 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 106,390 physical tons, a 28.04% month - on - month increase. The import volume in February was 21,800 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 26,000 physical tons, a 19.27% month - on - month increase. On the demand side, the demand is expected to strengthen next month, and inventory may be depleted. On the cost side, the CIF price of 6% concentrate has a daily - on - week increase, lower than the historical average [11] - Liberal Factors: Lithium mica manufacturers' plans to stop or reduce production, and the month - on - month decline in the amount of lithium carbonate imported from Chile [12] - Bearish Factors: The supply from the ore/salt lake end remains at a high level, and the decline is limited [13] - Main Logic: Tight supply - demand balance with sentiment fluctuations triggered by news [14] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - Supply - side Data: The weekly production of lithium carbonate last week was 24,186 tons, a 3.24% week - on - week increase. The monthly production in February 2026 was 83,090 tons, a 15.13% month - on - month decrease. The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate in February was 26,426.79 tons, a 1.61% month - on - month decrease [7][20] - Demand - side Data: The weekly inventory of phosphoric acid iron - lithium sample enterprises last week was 106,718 tons, a 0.89% week - on - week increase, and the weekly inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 18,425 tons, a 2.25% week - on - week increase. The monthly production of phosphoric acid iron was 300,250 tons, a 7.67% month - on - month decrease; the monthly production of phosphoric acid iron - lithium was 348,200 tons, a 12.20% month - on - month decrease [7][20] - Inventory Data: The smelter inventory was 16,608 tons, a 1.94% week - on - week increase, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory was 46,105 tons, a 1.00% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average; other inventories were 36,160 tons, a 2.32% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average; the total inventory was 98,873 tons, a 0.08% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average [8] 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - Price Trend: The price of 6% lithium ore (CIF) is presented in a long - term data chart, showing historical price trends [27] - Production and Import: The production of Chinese sample lithium - spodumene mines and the total domestic lithium - mica production are presented in a long - term data chart, showing historical production trends. The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate is also presented, including imports from Australia and other countries [27] - Self - sufficiency Rate: The self - sufficiency rates of lithium - spodumene, lithium ore, and lithium - mica are presented in a long - term data chart, showing historical self - sufficiency rate trends [27] - Inventory: The weekly inventory of port traders and unsold lithium ore is presented in a long - term data chart, showing historical inventory trends [27] - Supply - Demand Balance: The monthly supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore from February 2025 to February 2026 is presented, including demand, production, import, export, and balance data [29] 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - Production and Capacity: The weekly production and capacity utilization rates of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium - spodumene, lithium - mica, salt lake, and recycled materials) are presented in long - term data charts, showing historical trends. The monthly production of lithium carbonate by grade (battery - grade and industrial - grade) and by raw material (lithium - spodumene, lithium - mica, salt lake, and recycled materials) is also presented [32] - Import: The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate from different countries (Chile, Argentina, etc.) is presented in a long - term data chart, showing historical import trends [32] - Supply - Demand Balance: The monthly supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate from February 2025 to February 2026 is presented, including demand, production, import, export, and balance data [37] 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Capacity Utilization and Production: The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic lithium hydroxide and the monthly production by source (causticization and smelting) are presented in long - term data charts, showing historical trends [40] - Export: The monthly export volume of Chinese lithium hydroxide from 2020 to 2026 is presented in a long - term data chart, showing historical export trends [40] - Supply - Demand Balance: The monthly supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide from February 2025 to February 2026 is presented, including demand, production, import, export, and balance data [43] 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost and Profit - Cost and Profit of Lithium Ore: The production cost and profit of外购锂辉石精矿 (Li₂O:6%) and外购锂云母精矿 (Li₂O:2.5%) are presented in long - term data charts, showing historical cost - profit trends. The processing cost composition of lithium - mica and lithium - spodumene is also presented [46] - Cost and Profit of Lithium Carbonate Recycling: The cost and profit of recycling and producing lithium carbonate from different types of black powder (phosphoric acid iron - lithium battery black powder, phosphoric acid iron - lithium pole - piece black powder, ternary pole - piece black powder, and ternary battery black powder) are presented in long - term data charts, showing historical cost - profit trends [48] - Other Cost and Profit: The purification profit of industrial - grade lithium carbonate, the profit of lithium hydroxide carbonization to lithium carbonate, the processing cost difference between lithium hydroxide coarse particles and fine particles, the profit and cost of smelting and causticizing lithium hydroxide, the export profit of lithium hydroxide, and the profit of lithium carbonate causticizing to lithium hydroxide are presented in long - term data charts, showing historical cost - profit trends [48][50][51] 3.7 Inventory - Lithium Carbonate Inventory: The weekly and monthly inventories of lithium carbonate, including smelter inventory, downstream inventory, and other inventories, are presented in long - term data charts, showing historical inventory trends [53] - Lithium Hydroxide Inventory: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide, including smelter inventory and downstream inventory, is presented in a long - term data chart, showing historical inventory trends [53] 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - Power Battery - Price and Production: The price trends of different types of batteries (523 square, power - square phosphoric acid iron - lithium, and energy - storage 280Ah square phosphoric acid iron - lithium) are presented. The monthly production of power - cell cores (power ternary and power phosphoric acid iron - lithium) and the monthly loading volume of power batteries (phosphoric acid iron - lithium and ternary materials) are also presented [57] - Export: The monthly export volume of lithium batteries from 2020 to 2026 is presented in a long - term data chart, showing historical export trends [57] - Cost: The cost trend of cell cores is presented in a long - term data chart, showing historical cost trends [57] 3.9 Demand - Lithium Battery - Energy Storage - Inventory and Production: The inventory of lithium - battery cell cores (power ternary, power phosphoric acid iron - lithium, and energy - storage batteries) and the monthly production of energy - storage cell cores are presented in long - term data charts, showing historical trends [59] - Bidding and Cost: The energy - storage system EPC bidding and the cost - price trend of 314Ah phosphoric acid iron - lithium energy - storage cell cores are presented in long - term data charts, showing historical trends [59] 3.10 Demand - Ternary Precursor - Price and Cost: The price trends of different types of ternary precursors (5 - series, 6 - series, and 8 - series) and the cost and profit of 523 (polycrystalline/consumer) ternary precursors are presented in long - term data charts, showing historical trends [62] - Capacity and Production: The capacity utilization rate, capacity, and monthly production of ternary precursors are presented in long - term data charts, showing historical trends [62] - Supply - Demand Balance: The monthly supply - demand balance of ternary precursors from February 2025 to February 2026 is presented, including demand, production, import, export, and balance data [65] 3.11 Demand - Ternary Material - Price and Cost: The price trends of different types of ternary materials (5 - series and 6 - series) and the cost and profit of 523 (polycrystalline/consumer) ternary materials are presented in long - term data charts, showing historical trends [68] - Production and Inventory: The weekly production rate, capacity, and weekly inventory of ternary materials are presented in long - term data charts, showing historical trends [68][71] - Export and Import: The monthly export and import volumes of ternary materials are presented in long - term data charts, showing historical trends [71] 3.12 Demand - Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Iron - Lithium - Price and Cost: The price trends of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron - lithium and the production cost of phosphoric acid iron are presented in long - term data charts, showing historical trends [72] - Capacity and Production: The capacity, monthly production, and monthly export volume of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron - lithium are presented in long - term data charts, showing historical trends [72][75] - Inventory: The weekly inventory of phosphoric acid iron - lithium is presented in a long - term data chart, showing historical inventory trends [77] 3.13 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - Production, Sales, and Export: The production, sales, and export volumes of new energy vehicles (plug - in hybrid and pure - electric) are presented in long - term data charts, showing historical trends [80] - Penetration Rate and Inventory Index: The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles, the retail - to - wholesale ratios of hybrid and pure - electric vehicles, and the dealer inventory warning and inventory indexes are presented in long - term data charts, showing historical trends [81][84]