大越期货菜粕早报-20260326

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2605 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 2340 - 2400. The market is influenced by factors such as the trend of soybean meal, the improvement of China - Canada trade relations, and the supply - demand situation of rapeseed meal. After the overall negative factors are digested, it will maintain an oscillating pattern. Attention should be paid to the development of China - Canada trade relations in the future [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal RM2605 oscillates in the range of 2340 - 2400. Influenced by soybean meal trends, China's cancellation of restrictions on Canadian agricultural product exports, and the improvement of China - Canada trade relations, the market is in a short - term oscillating state. The spot demand is in the off - season, but the low inventory supports the market. The post - Spring Festival demand is expected to be good [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the seasonal off - season, with short - term supply expected to be tight and demand suppressing the market. Canada's rapeseed exports to China have returned to normal, and the import volume is gradually increasing. The visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China has improved China - Canada trade relations, and the tariffs imposed by both sides are being gradually cancelled. Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the Middle East situation has further escalated, which may support commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: The demand for rapeseed meal in China after the Spring Festival is expected to be good, and the rapeseed meal inventory of oil mills is under no pressure [12]. - Bearish factors: The domestic demand for rapeseed meal has entered the off - season in the short term, and China's import of Canadian rapeseed has resumed [12]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on the domestic aquaculture demand and the expected arrival of imported Canadian rapeseed [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Price data: From March 17 to March 25, the trading average price of soybean meal decreased from 3407 to 3309, and the trading average price of rapeseed meal decreased from 2510 to 2350. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, remaining around 900 - 960 [13]. - Inventory data: The domestic social inventory of rapeseed meal was 40.58 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.86% compared with last week, and a year - on - year decrease of 12.92% compared with the same period last year [9]. - Supply - demand balance data: The supply - demand balance tables of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2016 to 2025 are provided, showing the changes in harvest area, output, supply, demand, and inventory over the years [19][21]. 3.5 Position Data - The main short positions of rapeseed meal decreased, and the funds flowed out [9].