工业硅期货早报-20260326

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides an in - depth analysis of the industrial silicon and polysilicon markets, including supply, demand, cost, inventory, and price trends. It also offers expectations for the future price ranges of industrial silicon 2605 and polysilicon 2605 [3][8]. - The main logic for the market is capacity clearance, cost support, and demand increment. There are both positive and negative factors in the market, such as cost - rising support and slow post - holiday demand recovery [11][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Viewpoint Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 78,000 tons, remaining flat compared to the previous week. The supply production schedule is expected to increase, but it remains at a low level [3][6]. - Demand: Last week, the industrial silicon demand was 69,000 tons, a 1.47% increase compared to the previous week. The demand recovery is at a low level. Polysilicon inventory is at a high level, silicon wafers are in a loss state, while battery cells and components are in a profitable state. The organic silicon inventory is at a low level, with a production profit of 2,503 yuan/ton and a comprehensive operating rate of 68.6% (flat compared to the previous week and lower than the historical average). The aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level, and the recycled aluminum operating rate is at a high level [6]. - Cost: The production cost of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang is 9,769.7 yuan/ton, remaining flat compared to the previous week. The cost support increases during the dry season [6]. - Basis: On March 25th, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,150 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 380 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [6]. - Inventory: The social inventory is 553,000 tons, a 0.18% increase compared to the previous week. The sample enterprise inventory is 197,800 tons, a 0.36% increase compared to the previous week. The main port inventory is 136,000 tons, a 1.49% increase compared to the previous week [6]. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closes above MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position decreases [6]. - Expectation: Industrial silicon 2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,680 - 8,860 [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the polysilicon production was 19,000 tons, remaining flat compared to the previous week. The production schedule for March is predicted to be 84,900 tons, a 10.25% increase compared to the previous month [8]. - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 11.78GW, a 1.66% decrease compared to the previous week, and the inventory was 276,500 tons, a 2.46% decrease compared to the previous week. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The production schedule for March is 49.01GW, a 10.70% increase compared to the previous month. The battery cell production in February was 37.09GW, a 10.49% decrease compared to the previous month. Last week, the external sales factory inventory of battery cells was 6.79GW, a 16.66% increase compared to the previous week. Currently, battery cell production is in a profitable state. The production schedule for March is 46.36GW, a 24.99% increase compared to the previous month. The component production in February was 29.3GW, a 16.76% decrease compared to the previous month. The expected component production in March is 41.39GW, a 41.26% increase compared to the previous month. The domestic monthly inventory is 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease compared to the previous month, and the European monthly inventory is 38.41GW, a 12.30% increase compared to the previous month. Currently, component production is in a profitable state [8]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 40,260 yuan/ton, and the production profit is - 1,260 yuan/ton [8]. - Basis: On March 25th, the price of N - type dense material was 39,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 3,750 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [8]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory is 344,000 tons, a 3.64% decrease compared to the previous week, and it is at a high level in the same period of history [8]. - Disk: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closes below MA20 [8]. - Main Position: The main position is net long, and the long position decreases [8]. - Expectation: Polysilicon 2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 35,735 - 37,765 [8]. 2. Market Overview Industrial Silicon - The report shows the price changes of different contracts of industrial silicon futures, spot prices, basis, inventory, production, and other data [14]. Polysilicon - It presents the price changes of different contracts of polysilicon futures, prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, components, and other products, as well as inventory, production, and export data [15]. 3. Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends - The report shows the historical trends of the basis of industrial silicon and the spread between 421 and 553 silicon [17][18]. 4. Inventory - It shows the historical trends of industrial silicon inventory in delivery warehouses, ports, and sample enterprises, as well as the number of registered warrants [20][21][22]. 5. Production and Capacity Utilization Trends - It shows the historical trends of the weekly production of industrial silicon sample enterprises, monthly production by specification, and the operating rate of sample enterprises [24][25][26]. 6. Component Cost Trends - It shows the historical trends of electricity prices, silicon stone prices, graphite electrode prices, and some reducing agent prices in the main production areas of industrial silicon [29][30]. 7. Cost - Sample Region Trends - It shows the historical cost trends of 421/553 silicon in Sichuan, Xinjiang, and Yunnan [32][33][34]. 8. Weekly and Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - The weekly and monthly supply - demand balance sheets of industrial silicon show the production, import, export, consumption, and balance of industrial silicon [36][39][40]. 9. Downstream - Organic Silicon - DMC Price and Production Trends: It shows the historical trends of DMC capacity utilization, profit, cost, production, and price [42][43]. - Downstream Price Trends: It shows the historical price trends of 107 glue, raw rubber, silicone oil, and D4 [44][45][46][47]. - Import - Export and Inventory Trends: It shows the historical trends of DMC import, export, and inventory [49][50][52]. 10. Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - Price and Supply Situation: It shows the historical trends of waste aluminum recycling volume, waste aluminum social inventory, aluminum scrap import volume, SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price, and import ADC12 cost - profit [54][55]. - Inventory and Production Trends: It shows the historical trends of the monthly production of primary aluminum - based aluminum alloy ingots and recycled aluminum alloy ingots, the weekly operating rates of primary and recycled aluminum alloys, and the social inventory of aluminum alloy ingots [57][58]. - Demand (Automobiles and Wheel Hubs): It shows the historical trends of automobile monthly production, sales, and aluminum alloy wheel hub export [60][61]. 11. Downstream - Polysilicon - Fundamental Trends: It shows the historical trends of polysilicon industry cost, price, total inventory, monthly production, monthly operating rate, and monthly demand [64][65]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the monthly supply - demand balance of polysilicon, including consumption, export, import, supply, and balance [67][68]. - Silicon Wafer Trends: It shows the historical trends of silicon wafer price, weekly production, weekly inventory, monthly demand, and net export [70][71]. - Battery Cell Trends: It shows the historical trends of single - crystal P/N type battery cell price, battery cell production scheduling and actual production, photovoltaic battery external sales factory weekly inventory, photovoltaic battery operating rate, and battery cell export [73][74]. - Photovoltaic Component Trends: It shows the historical trends of component price, domestic and European photovoltaic component inventory, monthly production, and component export [76][77]. - Photovoltaic Accessory Trends: It shows the historical trends of photovoltaic coating price, photovoltaic film import - export, photovoltaic glass monthly production, export, high - purity quartz sand price, and solder strip import - export [79][80]. - Component Composition Cost - Profit Trends (210mm): It shows the cost and profit trends of silicon materials, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components in 210mm double - sided double - glass components [82]. - Photovoltaic Grid - Connected Power Generation Trends: It shows the historical trends of the national new power generation installed capacity, power generation composition and total amount, photovoltaic power station new grid - connected capacity, and solar monthly power generation [83][84].