纯碱、玻璃日报-20260326

1. Report Information - Report Title: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Report Date: March 26, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] - Researchers: Li Jie, Ren Junchi, Peng Jinglin, Liu Youran, Feng Zeren [4] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 3. Core Views - Soda ash market is in a weak fundamental situation with significant supply pressure and weak demand, but cost support from geopolitical factors partially offsets the downward pressure. In the short - term, the soda ash futures may have increased volatility, and in the long - term, it faces price decline pressure [8][9] - Glass futures are in an oscillating pattern. High inventory and production restart expectations suppress prices, while cold - repair expectations and raw material price fluctuations support prices. The key to glass price increase in the long - term is the continuous recovery of commercial housing sales data. There are short - term rebound opportunities, but the upward space is limited [10][11] 4. Summary by Section 4.1 Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Soda Ash Market - On March 25, the main soda ash futures SA605 fluctuated strongly. The closing price was 1,244 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton with a 0.32% increase, and the daily position increased by 2,265 lots [8] - The supply pressure is significant with new capacity release and high operating rates, leading to four - week consecutive increases in weekly output. Demand is weak due to increased cold - repair of float glass and slow recovery of real - estate completion data. Inventory is still at a historical high above 1.8 million tons, and the de - stocking process is blocked [8] - Geopolitical factors push up oil and coal prices, providing cost support for soda ash, but this support is unstable and affected by upstream commodity prices. The market is in a game between weak fundamentals, cost support, and macro expectations [9] - Glass Market - The glass futures price is in an oscillating pattern. High inventory and production restart expectations suppress prices, while cold - repair expectations and raw material price fluctuations support prices. Only a few production lines are cold - repaired, and inventory accumulation is the core problem restricting price increase [10][11] - The industry is in a loss range, and the price decline space is limited. The key to long - term price increase is the continuous recovery of commercial housing sales data. There are short - term rebound opportunities, and operation should focus on risk control [11] 4.2 Data Overview - Figures provided include the price trends of soda ash and glass active contracts, soda ash weekly output, soda ash enterprise inventory, central China heavy soda market price, and flat glass output [13][18][23]